The Dow took only minutes to reach a triple-digit advance and never looked back. And me being short got bitch-slapped without reprieve. 
But, I started shorting again at the end of the day….yes, I’m a masochist!
Although I was more short than long, there were a few plays that did well: a GS straddle with July 150 calls and puts, the calls gained $3, the put lost $2….overall a winner. The rest of the afternoon I watched the ES futures, taking a point or two here and there.
I guess its bonus time at CIT and they’re out of cash. So they’re asking “Hey taxpayer, can you spare a few billion dollars?” About 6pm this evening they put out a news release saying, “there is no appreciable likelihood of additional government support being provided over the near term.” Rumor has it that they are still negotiating with the FDIC on how much is insured.
Do you think the markets over reacted to the INTC report? The stock didn’t move after the initial pop last night.
For a while there I was holding positions for a day or 2 and making some bucks, but I’m back to day trading. It looks like you can’t establish positions more than a day or your profits are reversed.
One last point, the Arms index, or TRIN, says that a close under 0.50 results in selling the next day. No selling? Bears are in trouble. TRIN closed at 0.36 today. Let’s see what happens. 
That’s what Wednesday was…there was not even a hint of follow-thru today. The Markets went down from the get-go. The only unusual activity today was that the markets went up the last 15 minutes rather than the usual sell-off….but then again it was sell, sell, sell all day long.
As usual I reviewed all my charts and trades at the end of the day to see what I missed and all my woulda, coulda, shoulda’s for the day. The good news was I didn’t screw up any trades…The bad news…I didn’t place any trades 
I spent all day trying to call the bottom. As soon as I called it, the markets went lower. It’s too late to go short and too early to go long 
Although we’ve been going down all year, there hasn’t been any high volume capitulation, nor high volatility like last October/November. It’s been more of a “dead man walking” kind of trip. Neither the VIX, or the TRIN, or the TICK, or the put/call ratio have been excessive.
So I’m waiting for some extreme readings/volumes…with confirmation. I’ll place small positions to stay in the game, but nothing to hurt the account balance drastically. Tomorrow’s Labor report will play big in the game. I’m hoping for a “wooosh” down and a reversal to get this party started 
Keep your powder dry.
I was away from the market today, getting back in time to see the finishing of a trend day down. Oy! Indexes breaking or very near to breaking support levels….and plenty of stocks looking ugly. When do we say enough is enough! Are we scared? The VIX is “only” at 52. Decliners were like 30:1 advancers, but, on lower volume than Friday. TRIN is above 2 on the NYSE and above 3 on the Nasdaq.
Futures are enjoying an up move in the early evening, and even though the down trip is not over, a relief rally has to come, or maybe just total exhaustion and capitulation. But, I don’t think there are enough sellers around to capitulate.
Tuesday will bring us the Auto Sales reports…can’t expect those to look better than before. Some of the other reports to look for this week are the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday, February Retail Sales on Thursday, and the February Employment Report on Friday. I still think we’ll bounce on bad news.
Remember, cash is a position
Were you looking for one? Sure did seem like everyone was. And we did have a bounce in the pre-market futures. We got our high in the S&P futures, ES, about 9AM, and then downhill after that. We did have another rally attempt…another news- and rumor-driven market reaction…when some politicos announced the government really doesn’t want to “own” a bank (I think I heard someone mumble – we just want to print the money:-). The market scooted up some, but was quickly sent packing when AIG coughed up a humongous fur-ball….about the size of $60 billion. If you were long, you were wrong
If you’ve been visiting here for a while, you know that I use TRIN as one of my indicators for the market….And today was a real anomaly. The TRIN closed at 0.63, but was as low as 0.42. We almost always see such a low reading on large up days, and not down days. You need to read this from the SentimenTrader: Today’s TRIN – Never Seen Before….An explanation of what’s going on.
The S&P500 has had 6 down days in a row and is sitting at it’s November lows. And like many traders, I’m looking for a bounce….maybe the mother of all bear market bounces. Catch you on the upside
I got my gap up…we ended up….but there was a lot of down in between. Actually, I watched a lot of TV today, the House interrogating the bankers. What I found out was that the bankers are pretty smart and the congressmen know nothing about banking. And you wonder why we’re in trouble? How can this government body legislate anything that might help? How can politicians know what to do? Aaaaaahhhh
It was a mild day overall. The A/D line was positive, the TRIN stayed in the bullish area all day (under 1.0), and the VIX went down some…..oh, and let’s not forget the positive closes on all the indexes. The banks performed well, I think in response to finding out the bankers know what they’re doing, an oversold bounce…and an agreement on a stimulus plan.
I think we continue some upside movement for Thursday. Keep in mind that the markets are closed on Monday, so Friday there may be some selling to go flat into the close. Happy Trading!
As the day unfolded, I got a tune stuck in my head. It’s from Emerson, Lake and Palmer, Karn Evil 9, and it goes something like this:
Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends
We’re so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside…..
…the show’s about to start
Guaranteed to blow your head apart
Rest assured you’ll get your money’s worth
The greatest show in Heaven, Hell or Earth
Besides the song I had cliches running through my head also….buy the rumor, sell the news….the trend is your friend…..plan your trade….politicians suck. Obviously there is some truth to these sayings, otherwise we wouldn’t be constantly reminded of them.
So what happened? The new Treasury Secretary made an announcement with no details on saving the banks. A group of people who legislated us into this mess, are now legislating to get us out of it. Sort of like the fox guarding the chicken coop? I digress, off my soapbox.
If you were not short, you probably had a pretty ugly day. It was a mild down day until about 11 o’clock…when all hell broke loose. Down, down, down. In the last hour, we recovered slightly so that we did not close on the lows.
But with all that ugliness, the VIX barely moved! On the other hand, A/D volume was -33 to 1. The TRIN almost hit 7 and ended at 5.74. Remember: TRIN closing over 2.0 results in bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in real trouble! We shall see.
Futures this evening are positive and the early Asian markets have not sold off dramatically. There is hope. I’m looking for a gap up in the morning, or a down open with a reversal. So, have seat belt and helmet ready…time for another ride
Down 3 out of 4 days…I think it’s time to change moods. So my mood ring is changing green, so maybe it’s time for a green day. I’m not asking for much…a doji, a harami, an inside day, an NR7, what ever you wish to call it, let’s do some buying.
TRIN has closed above 2 for 2 days in a row. TRIN closing over 2.0 results in bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in real trouble!
So it’s freezing all over America…let’s heat it up some
And remember: “If you are Hoping or Wishing or Praying for your stock, Exit the trade now!”
The SP500 has made it above its 50 day moving average for first time since Sept. 3rd. It costs nothing to borrow money now! Even more mind-boggling is that more than 40% of the most volatile days in the last 60 years have occurred in the last 90 days Now that the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ have all bounced back up through resistance areas, what’s next?
I believe it should keep going….be it a new bull market or just a super rally in a bear market, there is some recovery in the cards. Not straight up, but “normal” backing and filling on the way to the 200 day moving average would be nice 
One of the indicators I use is the TRIN, or the ARMS Index after the developer Richard Arms, which measures buying and selling pressure of the NYSE (TRINQ measures the Nasdaq). Today the TRIN closed at 0.34, and a close under 0.50 results in selling the next day 9 times out of 10. No selling? Bears are in trouble! Let’s see how this indicator works on tomorrow.
So I ate and drank way too much last night at a neighborhood Christmas party, but I’ve recovered and thought I’d move on to a few more screens that I use for stock trades.
Desktop #4 is another “overall market” screen which plots the Advance/Decline issues and volume of the NASDAQ and NYSE separately. It also plots separately the VIX and TRIN of each market. I have a small plot of the NYSE Put/Call Ratio, TICK, and A/D volume differential. This pretty much tells me what the markets doing overall.
Market status screen
And my last screen is just my watchlist. This usually changes from day-to-day based on the scans that I do each evening. It usually ranges from 100 – 150 stocks, which are sorted realtime by percentage change. You’ll notice I have a column that also alerts ne to what king of candlestick may be forming on each particular stock.
My watchlists screen
I also have an options screens, but it is pretty much the standard one that comes with Tradestation. I’m experimenting with some other arrangements and different screens and charts, so these may change at any time…but I’ll let you know once I have some successful history with any of them.
Let me know if you have any questions on what you see on these charts or clarification on how I use them. Happy Trading!
The 4th biggest down day in history on relatively smaller volume….that sucked! It crawled out of nowhere it seemed. It was nice to make some break even trades, but I stopped trading after the losses piled up….that means I was out by noon
The financials led the way down with everything else getting sucked into its vortex. My plan was for the S&P to hold the 850 line and then get in…but no such luck.
Futures are recovering this evening, so there may be a bounce tomorrow. The TRIN closed at 9.77 which means a bounce tomorrow…well at least 9 out of ten times. The TICK was also skipping along the -1000 line for much of the day, which also portends a move up tomorrow. I’m talking myself into a bounce tomorrow, but I’ll wait until I see the action in the morning…and just go with the flow.
Happy trading!
…screamed the market. Well, my TRIN indicator didn’t pan out either today. So I’ve got this ugly pile of indicators, not doing what they used to do, and me not knowing what to do either. Well, at least I’m in with some respected company (that would be everybody) 
Historic activity, prices and action in the markets. C closed below the $5 mark, so everyone that had owned it on leverage may have gotten a margin call last night since it is no longer margin-able. The market has gone back to its late 90’s prices…but in the late 90’s, GM and F were $50+ billion companies…now they are just $1+ billion 
The markets broke through support levels on comparatively higher volume, setting them up for even further deterioration. The S&P500 has already broken through it’s 2002 lows and the Dow is about ready to….so watch 7196 in the Dow. I’m looking for a massive rush to the downside in the next day or two with a whiplash inducing rally. Of course, that’s what the indicators are pointing to…and they haven’t been working that well lately. Happy trading….and be careful out there
Published on
November 19, 2008,
11:46 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: DJ30, F, GM, GS, MCD, Tick, TRIN, UYG, XLF.
The market’s a bitch and then you go broke Crazy, crazy! Four hundred point moves seem so mundane now…..any many times in just the last hour. A/D was at -2800 and A/D volume made it to -50:1 !!
Many indicators don’t seem to be indicating anything they used to…. definitely not predictive. We had many TICKs of over -1000 today. I use +1000 and -1000 readings to open trades in the opposite direction of the tick. Didn’t work well today.
So here’s one we’ll look to see if it’s still working….TRIN. The TRIN closed at 3.37 today…and it is said, “TRIN closing over 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 times out of 10. No bounce? Market in real trouble!”
Wednesday of opex week is usually bullish, but the Dow declined for the tenth Wednesday in a row today. And did you see those financials? UYG and XLF getting new lows again. GS catching a sub-60 handle. And a Happy Meal from MCD costs more than a share of GM or F.
Oh well…hang tough everybody
