It wasn’t a good Initial Claims report, unexpectedly climbing this week and revising last week’s report up also. Markets started red and then began a slow grind up for the rest of the day. It was still a mixed day at the end, no index gaining or losing much.
As I said yesterday, employment numbers will not be that important…it’s how the markets react. If jobs numbers are lower than expected, traders will sell fearing the economy won’t come back quick enough. If numbers beat expectations, traders will worry that the Fed will take away the punch bowl and raise rates sooner then expected. So there may be an upside pop, but I’m looking for a down market…if not on Friday, then Monday.
If the markets pop or move up on Friday, I’ll add to my shorts. If they happen to start diving right away I’ll just ride ‘em down….EDZ SDS QID
Have you watched GOOG the past 2 days? I guess nobody likes that new phone they announced. And AAPL VZ T and all the techs must have sympathy pains. Everybody must be getting out of tech and into banks.
More good news?…More than 6% of commercial-mortgage borrowers in the U.S. have fallen behind in their payments! Delinquency rates on loans for hotels, shopping malls and other commercial properties could rise to between 9% and 14%. Might be time for SRS again. Here’s another reason why this bailout sh!t ain’t working. Geithner’s New York Fed Told AIG to Limit Swaps Disclosure. Gee, maybe Timmy may lose his job.
And if there is anything you don’t like about my blog, please tell me. I don’t want to end up like these guys:Blogging is a dangerous business.
I added to my short positions today via VIX puts and SDS calls. I also daytraded SEED to the long side to make some pocket change. 
Seems to me the market is waiting for Initial Claims on Thursday and the big Employment reports on Friday. We’ll get a clue as ADP posts their version on Wednesday morning.
Been spending a lot of time this evening trying to explore Stockfinder. It’s like a super TCnet charting and scanning program. They even work together. I’ll review it after I learn it. Time for some shut-eye!
Published on
October 8, 2009,
9:08 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: CHIP, DXD, DZZ, ERY, ES, OPXA, SDS, TBT, TZA.
Traders were happy with AA earnings and futures were up all night. Adding in a good jobs report and many stocks gapped up at the open. My spec plays from yesterday were flops. Both CHIP and OPXA floundered around to the down side, but not so much as to stop me out. Most of my trading activities were in the futures before the cash markets opened. I couldn’t sleep last night, so I got up early, like 4AM, and enjoyed some quiet trading. Using 1 car, I traded short 2x and long 2x and walked away with 45 ticks before the open….so it was a good day by morning
The other exceptional play I had was entering some TBT calls before the auction results. TBT is the Ultra short 20+ year Treasury ETF. You would buy this when you think interest rates are going up. After the auction results were announced, the calls popped up 20%…and within another 30 minutes they climbed another 15%, so I cashed out with a 35% gain in about an hour’s time. That was one of those trades where you kick yourself saying, “Why didn’t I buy more?”
The markets have been up every day this week, so I’m thinking traders may be taking profits before the weekend. I also think that Gold may be getting a little ahead of itself. So I’m making a watchlist of several short ETFs, as in: DZZ SDS TZA DXD ERY. I’m also looking at re-entering TBT calls on any pullback. And I’ll probably be shorting ES….unless of course, the bulls come out and chase the bears away.
And for your reading enjoyment:
The Weak-Dollar Threat to Prosperity
What a wonderful Monday 
The profits were made early in the session. It was kaching city with EDZ DUG SMN….I love it when a plan comes together. Took a long lunch, had a few, just like the big boys, and came back in time to short some more.
Not as aggressive though. I did pick up EDZ again and also some SDS, but odds go with a turnaround Tuesday. So I’m gonna watch the futures and see how the world is doing. Either way it’s gonna take a lot for this to be a bad week for me. :LOL:
That was an amazing 30 minutes of market action from 3:45 Friday afternoon through 9:45 Monday morning. Friday was lackadaisical all day until the end. Then Monday morning exploded for a few minutes and then got lackadaisical for the rest of the day. But that 30 minutes was crazy
The S&P500 broke thru what I thought would be resistance of 944. Of course, it did not close above it, but it is still close. And because it is at resistance and overbought, I’m looking for a turnaround Tuesday….to the downside. I started picking up SDS around $53 and TZA at about $22. By the end of the day both positions were in the green, but I am looking for much more….if not Tuesday, then by the end of the week.
Financials and shippers had some early upside but experienced some selling into the afternoon…..GS DRYS EGLE, while down a bit from last week’s close, were down a lot from their highs….helping to bring the indexes off their highs.
From the Trader’s Almanac – First trading day in June, Dow up 9 of last 10. I guess it’s 10 out of 11 now 
Published on
May 3, 2009,
8:47 pm in
Trading and Weekly.
Tags: 200ma, doji, DXD, FAZ, Fed, MZZ, QID, QQQQ, SDS, SKF, SP500, SRS, TZA.
The market has held up extremely well even though all the indicators show that we are very overbought. We’ve made a run four times for 875 in the S&P recently…3 times just this week, and finally closing 2 points above that line…not real decisive. The QQQQ closed for a second consecutive day above the 200-day moving average, a level it hasn’t traded above consistently for over 9 months. Of course, the candles show doji’s…a very indecisive signal.
As I’ve said before, I am looking for a rest/pullback soon…as is just about everybody. I’ve been playing the Q’s short via QID for most of the week and that has worked out. I closed my QID positions on Friday during the market pullback late in the afternoon, but then started nibbling at QID again after hours after that violent and fast run up.
The upcoming week will give us many chances for a pullback with fairly active economic data releases. Monday we have Construction Spending and Pending Home Sales; Tuesday the ISM Services Index and the Fed Reserve Chairman testifies before Congress. Wednesday is ADP Payroll. Thursday is Weekly Jobless Claims and Productivity and Labor Cost data, and finally Friday is the widely watched Employment statistics.
I’ll be watching many UltraShort ETFs, such as the QID, SDS, DXD, TZA, FAZ, SKF, MZZ, SRS. And be nimble on the trigger…you may have to change your mind quickly
I’ve been shorting for 2 days now and it is still working….at least the positions are in the green. But it sure seems like there needs to be some more pullback to these markets, and for sure to the bank stocks. I’m hoping the pullback is orderly and not too violent, but some correction is needed. I mean, 2 months in a row, the greatest bull run in the shortest amount of time! We need to get the bears back in so when it’s time to move back up we can have more shorts covering 
I added to my QID position today…got some with a $35-handle, and if we get a pop or intraday rally on Friday, I may add some more…..or dive long into some other bear ETF like, TMW SDS DXD TZA. I may even hold over the weekend, thinking that next week will continue down. I’d like to see us go down to 810 on the S&P500.
Published on
October 15, 2008,
8:39 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: DGP, DJ30, DTO, DUG, DXD, futures, QID, SDS, SKF, SP500, TWM.
Wow, only 5 stocks in the S&P500 closed in the green today and 1 in the DJ30…that stinks! The goal today was to get back to cash…just so I could preserve as much as possible. Again that last hour was another killer.
I guess I’ll just sit and watch…because I have no idea what this market wants to do. Any plays I make will be with 2x ETFs. Today’s ETFs that would have made money if I had jumped in earlier: DUG, SKF, TWM, SDS, DXD, QID, DTO, DGP.
I’m really getting tired of this market. Remember to try to weed out the political rhetoric and just listen to your charts. The market lives in the moment….I wish I could figure out which moment. The futures are down another 1 – 2%, so I’ll go to bed with a frown on my face 
Published on
July 24, 2008,
9:37 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: ABAT, ARBA, AXL, CRUS, DXD, HANS, IAR, markets, QDEL, QID, SDS.
Yes, the indexes were down anywhere from 1% to 3%…and financial stocks were down big, but look how fast we came up the past week. We quickly became overbought and now we will quickly reset for a continuation up. Let’s take a breather for a couple days.
Individual stocks were good to play. I had luck with IAR, CRUS and ARBA….after unloading the banks I had held over from yesterday. Tomorrow being Friday, I’ll be going to cash, or mostly cash, sometime tomorrow…either early or late…depending on how the markets go.
I’ll put some of the ultra-shorts in my watchlist just in case it all goes to hell…SDS, DXD, QID, along with some short stocks HANS and AXL. For longs I’m liking the action in QDEL and ABAT.
I’m ready…bring on the markets
