Have you noticed how the market sells off just slightly and indicators correct to oversold…ready to turn again and go up? And that’s a bit different in our previous bear market rallies when volume was big on the downside and small on the upturns. That’s a big change from a couple months ago when we needed to see a 400 point dive to nudge the indicators into oversold, then some low volume upticks to get it overbought. And we haven’t seen the VIX with a 30-handle close since January.
On Friday we closed having the best 4-week gain in 70 years
And the big markets have closed above major resistance lines. So if the Nasdaq can stay above 1600 and the S&P500 above 800, I think we’re still good to go…to the upside. Oh yeah, and the Dow above 8000
The only bad part is that people are getting bullish. Yes it makes us all feel good, but it also usually means a bear is waiting for us around the corner. Yes, trader sentiment is a contrarian indicator. So have we started a bull market or do we still need to test that “devil low” in the S&P in early March…666. I don’t think that would look good for the Prez and his administration (nor the Plunge Protection Team).
This week has been outstanding for my long-term/IRA accounts, more so than for my trading account. I try to siphon off trading profits and put them into long-term accounts…mainly because the retirement program as an entrepreneur is lousy
But, that aside, I made some wonderful profits on DNDN, UYG and URE this week. DNDN is a speculative play waiting for the end of April for FDA announcements. But, on Friday some “announcement of an announcement” made the stock pop and I had to take advantage of it for a quick 100 percent return. Still have a position waiting for the FDA rulings that may give me a 1000% return in seconds. While I do trade URE and UYG on a regular basis, I’ve had some sitting for a month since those outrageous lows in the beginning of March….and again I just have to take some off the table when they double.
My trading account only had one “real” winner in RIMM….who had spectacular earnings report and guidance. This was a strict earnings play. It was tempered by some losing plays in the S&P futures (ESM09). Every loser was a counter-trend play. That is going short when the index was long….and vice versa. Monday was my worst day when I kept trying to go long even though the index was putting in a trend day down:!:
So before I go looking for some new plays, I have to review my mistakes and successes in all my trades. I also review some winners that I didn’t find in my scans, and see if I can modify them to pick up some of them. It seemed quite a few have slipped through the cracks for me anyway. Check these tickers out…I hope you caught them: TM HMC SHI JKHY DGS ZZ ASH SNE. Check out their charts. If you had got into any of them a month ago, you would be breaking the bank
I’m going to work on refining some scans, then check into the futures markets and the early Asian market open. Happy Trading.