Tag Archive for 'Nasdaq'

News Flash

Futures were down pretty big this morning until…..famed investor Buffet bought BNI. You must know though that Buffet already owned 30% of the outstanding stock. So to me, he was basically talking up his own book. Yes, the other 70% owners made out, but so did Buffet’s 30%. And, all of that hoopla blocked out JNJ’s announcement of restructuring and laying off 7% of its workforce!

Oh well, beside that, it was a fairly boring market day…another up move on a lower volume day, and not giving us any idea of what it’s doing. Tomorrow at 2PM we get the FOMC announcement. Now that should shove some volatility up our arses :!:

I’m looking for some downside moves, but, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, November is the #1 month for S&P, #3 month for Dow, #2 for NASDAQ. So history says we may go up.

Remember….As Keynes famously once said “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”. So be careful.

You want out?

Boy oh boy, lots of people wanted out of the market today….scattering for the exits! Funny I made more on my longs than I did my shorts. While I was trading today, I noticed that, at times, I had both TZA and TNA positions working. So I was both long and short the market. TZA was a position I held most of the day and TNA I was in and out four, maybe 5 times….all moneymakers, except for the small TNA position I am holding overnight, but I think it should get better tomorrow.

We’re down about 6% from the top just 6 days ago, which is the largest correction since this bull started back in March. It’s also one of only 3 times since then when we have had 4 down days in a row. We haven’t had 5, so tomorrow may be a “special” day. I’m thinking it is time for a bounce…maybe not a big one, but a bounce…thus my holding some TNA.

Some other ominous moves were GS breaking thru its 50ma, as did the S&P, Nasdaq, QQQQ. The Dow is still hanging tough, or at least tougher than the rest. This all started when GS lowered it’s GDP estimate, so Thursday morning will be exciting. And don’t forget Initial Claims!

So let’s get ready to rumble into the end of October. If we don’t move up in the next 2 days, we’ll finally have a down month, the first since February. Keep your finger on the mouse and happy trading. :mrgreen:

Earnings start in earnest

Today was mostly dullsville on low holiday volume, although there were opportunities for some scalps. I went long last night with ES at 1068 and was able to cash in by the time the market opened with almost 6 points. Trading volume was about half of “normal” volume with no news and no economic data.

It was a good day to just watch. After the gap up open, markets traded in a narrow range. Mid-afternoon though brought a vicious bout of profit-taking….enough to fill all those gaps….even go into the red. The Russell and the Nasdaq finished in the red but the rest ended in the green, well off their highs, but at least green.

We did hit some new intraday highs for some of the indexes, but missed the magical 10000 Dow. The question, will the highs push us back or will we try several times to push higher? Tomorrow will still lack eco data, but earnings will start in earnest with JNJ in the morning and INTC after the bell. Later in the week we’ll get ABT JPM C GS AMD GOOG IBM BAC GE HAL among many others….all in options expiration week. Oh boy, this should be a fun week!

And if you’re an active trader you may want to read this: Democrats Weigh Tax On Financial Transactions

Now what?

Friday was a weak closing to a very strong month, as traders reacted to the latest reading of the GDP….which showed that the recession is worse than many thought, but that it may also be nearing the end. Then we heard that “cash for clunkers” was running out of cash, or so they think, because they can’t handle the “tens of thousands” of forms coming through. Well, if the government can’t even handle a hundred thousand apps for a billion dollars, how will the government perform with tens of millions of forms looking for a trillion dollars? Oh boy, this looks like a train wreck coming. :cry:

The indexes look like they’re topping with the shooting stars. Looking at the Nasdaq chart, you can see similar short-term tops and how the index reacted. You can see similar action in the Naz 100 and the S&P charts. The Dow doesn’t look as clean as the other charts, but is still looking tired. I don’t have any real conviction in any direction, but I’m going to be looking for some near term shorting opportunities.

August is a seasonally slow/bearish month. The first trading day in August, according to the Trader’s Almanac, shows that the Dow has been down 8 of the last 11, but was up 1.1% in 2007. It goes on to say that the first 9 trading days of August are historically weak. So stay alert and watch the charts….then go fishing. :lol:

Wasn’t that different!

You would think with the Initial Jobless Claims going up, earnings reports getting stinkier and an unsettling week of treasury auctions, the markets would be a little bit more cautionary. But no! Good news is bad and bad news is good. Who would think the markets are so illogical? 8O

For the last couple days, or weeks, the markets meandered down in the morning and then came up in the last 15 minutes of the day. Well, we had the complete opposite today. We jumped up at the open and had a very exciting hour. After that, the markets stood still for the day, and then started to dive at the end of the day. It looks like the market’s only

Looking at the Dow and S&P charts, they both gave back half of their day’s run up. The Nasdaq looks like a shooting star doji, which usually isn’t very good, but needs a confirmation….and the QQQQs looked pretty much the same. But the completion of this week’s mayhem is seemingly all going to pivot around Friday morning’s GDP report. If it gets anywhere close to +0% we could have a bang up day. Anywhere close to last quarters numbers, -5.5%, we could go diving for a real correction. The number comes out an hour before the markets open. Be ready….and careful.

One more thing, speaking of illogical….It was announced today that banks, who had received TARP money, paid $32 billion in bonuses! Is this what we had to save? This was the “emergency, financial crisis” last fall that all our tax, future tax, and newly printed money went to? Nothing more I can say to that. What the $%@&* !

It’s scary out there!

We dive into the thick of earnings season with somewhere around 600 companies reporting earnings this week! So this week we should get a real good read on what is happening in corporate America.

Last weekend just about everyone was bearish…and now we know how that turned out. But this weekend everyone is bullish! Should we expect a down week then?

One of the big bull pushers last week were the housing starts number…but no one is discussing any housing completion numbers, which are way down. This only means that contractors and/or home owners can’t get loans to finish or to buy a house. I also heard that 1 out of 5 homes in Florida are in some stage of foreclosure. This doesn’t sit well with me, sorta scary.

Unemployment still hasn’t stopped. I live in Ohio and this state’s unemployment is 11.1%. Michigan next door is over 15%….and I hear there are 4 other states over 15% and 15 states over 10% :!: And where can employment come from? Corporations will need to continue to layoff workers to continue to get earnings. Looks like only the government will be employing soon, so how will we increase tax receipts by taxing government employee paychecks which already comes from tax dollars. Anybody see a chicken/egg kinda question forming here?

The VIX hasn’t been this low since last September…..y’know, just before the markets collapsed…kinda scary. And one last thing I noticed while looking at charts this evening….The Monday after June option expiration was a BIG down day: Dow down -2.4%, Nasdaq -3.4%, S&P -3.1%, QQQQ -3%. Tomorrow should be fun, but aren’t they all?

Mine is not to wonder why, mine is just to chart and buy. 8)

Wild Week Ahead?

With tech woes behind me…I hope, I hope….I’ve had time to review what happened this week. Although the Nasdaq was able to make it 7 in a row, the S&P500 and Dow took a little breather. On the weekly charts the indexes are very overbought, while on the daily they still have some room for upside. But I’m thinking the news may play a big role. Specifically the threat of a world pandemic with the swine flu and the near threat of socializing the US banks….and the direction looks to be down :twisted:

So, I’m looking at the 2x and 3x short ETFs, such as: FAZ BGZ TZA SRS…..and I always look to scalp a few points in the S&P emini futures in either direction. It will be a very big earnings week with about 150 of the S&P500 and several of the Dow, including VZ XOM and PG. There’s an FOMC meeting and a lot of economic data. Plus, the month is ending, so all those money managers are going to make their portfolios look pretty. This is going to be a wild week :!:

Buy the dips?

Have you noticed how the market sells off just slightly and indicators correct to oversold…ready to turn again and go up? And that’s a bit different in our previous bear market rallies when volume was big on the downside and small on the upturns. That’s a big change from a couple months ago when we needed to see a 400 point dive to nudge the indicators into oversold, then some low volume upticks to get it overbought. And we haven’t seen the VIX with a 30-handle close since January.

On Friday we closed having the best 4-week gain in 70 years :!: And the big markets have closed above major resistance lines. So if the Nasdaq can stay above 1600 and the S&P500 above 800, I think we’re still good to go…to the upside. Oh yeah, and the Dow above 8000 ;-)

The only bad part is that people are getting bullish. Yes it makes us all feel good, but it also usually means a bear is waiting for us around the corner. Yes, trader sentiment is a contrarian indicator. So have we started a bull market or do we still need to test that “devil low” in the S&P in early March…666. I don’t think that would look good for the Prez and his administration (nor the Plunge Protection Team).

This week has been outstanding for my long-term/IRA accounts, more so than for my trading account. I try to siphon off trading profits and put them into long-term accounts…mainly because the retirement program as an entrepreneur is lousy :oops: But, that aside, I made some wonderful profits on DNDN, UYG and URE this week. DNDN is a speculative play waiting for the end of April for FDA announcements. But, on Friday some “announcement of an announcement” made the stock pop and I had to take advantage of it for a quick 100 percent return. Still have a position waiting for the FDA rulings that may give me a 1000% return in seconds. While I do trade URE and UYG on a regular basis, I’ve had some sitting for a month since those outrageous lows in the beginning of March….and again I just have to take some off the table when they double.

My trading account only had one “real” winner in RIMM….who had spectacular earnings report and guidance. This was a strict earnings play. It was tempered by some losing plays in the S&P futures (ESM09). Every loser was a counter-trend play. That is going short when the index was long….and vice versa. Monday was my worst day when I kept trying to go long even though the index was putting in a trend day down:!:

So before I go looking for some new plays, I have to review my mistakes and successes in all my trades. I also review some winners that I didn’t find in my scans, and see if I can modify them to pick up some of them. It seemed quite a few have slipped through the cracks for me anyway. Check these tickers out…I hope you caught them: TM HMC SHI JKHY DGS ZZ ASH SNE. Check out their charts. If you had got into any of them a month ago, you would be breaking the bank :lol:

I’m going to work on refining some scans, then check into the futures markets and the early Asian market open. Happy Trading.

Studying the past….

….to learn the future. The Trader’s Almanac notes that the first four days in April are bullish days and that April is the best month of the year for the Dow, averaging a 1.8% gain. It’s also the 3rd best month for the S&P500 and 5th best for the Nasdaq.

Well, so far the almanac is right, 2 for 2…and today will be a big test. Jobs numbers out in 30 minutes. I’m on the sidelines and am going to watch what happens. Whichever way, the first 5 minutes will be a reaction and it may take two to three hours before we see the “truth” in direction. Good luck all :!:

7%

That’s how much the S&P500 went up today. And although I traded the S&P futures (ESM09) today….I didn’t get that. In matter of fact, by the end of the day, I was barely in the green, up 4.5 points. I had a tough time picking some good, stable setups. At my worst point I was down -10.75 points and struggled to recover. It was tiring :?

I did do fairly well on the equities side…40% on FAS and 35% on HW. So it was a good overall day, but I’m feeling like I just drove a Jeep off-road with no shocks and no seatbelt for 6 hours :!:

I surprised myself in that my weekend cheerleading actually paid off…..lucky, not talented. Now, if we don’t see too much profit taking, maybe a small inside day/doji/harami, even a couple days consolidating, I would be very encouraged. The S&P500 is up 21% from its lows….and by definition, that’s a bull market. The Nasdaq is up 22%….just need the Dow to creep up a percentage or two and we’d be on our way across the board.

And I’m sure that all this market enthusiasm is based on the simple renaming of toxic-assets to legacy-loans….it sounds just so much nicer :roll:

Sunday afternoon pontifications…

I’m looking for an up week. I think there is enough upcoming news that may bring some optimism to the most downtrodden of bulls. And if the Arrogant Idiots and Goofballs (AIG) ever get out of the headlines, we may really takeoff :lol:

With announcements about toxic assets, TALF, FDIC and public-private partnerships, if this isn’t the start of a new bull, we should at least get a dramatic bear rally. We’ve also got some economic reports this week that may be a catalyst…Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, 4th Quarter GDP, Personal Income and Spending, as well as the weekly Jobless Claims.

Yes, I’m cheer leading for the bulls, at least in the mid-term….but I still watch the daily trend, either up or down, and base my daily trades on that. For the mid- and long-term in my IRAs and retirement accounts, I’ve been accumulating bit by bit, dollar-cost averaging new purchases, mostly in ETFs like the financials (UYG), real estate (URE), crude (DXO) and some indexes (SSO and IWM).

And speaking of indexes, they’ve had a great 7 days:

  • The Russell 2000 up 21.7%
  • The NASDAQ up 17.5%
  • The S&P500 up 17.4%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 14.4%

So last week the S&P500 got knocked down from its January lows and the Dow from its November lows. No big deal. I think the next time we approach they will breakthrough….maybe after the S&P tests its November lows and bounces.

OK, time to check out some basketball and a few Bud Lights 8)

The Week That Was

That was some crazy Friday…after the initial pop at the open, most of the day was a trend-day down. But, by the end of the day we had a key reversal…not all the way back to the session high, but still a fast and furious reversal. The final 30 minutes of trade saw a strong bounce in the indexes… and the futures continued up for another fifteen minutes until the close. If the shorts didn’t cover then they may well be covering Monday morning. Still the Dow was off 600 points for the week :-(

The indexes started off higher on relief the employment report was only terrible and not ugly. But clearer minds prevailed and traders slowly realized that the data wasn’t worthy of a rally. The Nasdaq finally broke thru its November lows, joining the S&P500 and Dow which pierced theirs a week or two ago. Speaking of the S&P500, did you notice that almost a third of the companies comprising the index are at $10 and change or below :!:

Here’s another observation, maybe related, maybe not. My friends who voted for BO, have stopped bragging about how great it was going to be. Being the token republican in the bunch, I’ve gotten a lot a ribbing for the last 4 months, but it has been reduced to a quite whisper. Instead the conversations now talk about pork, double-dipping, and taxes….both lack of paying them and increasing them. It’s only been 4 weeks since the Prez has signed the bailout bill, but the S&P500 has lost more than twice the amount of the bill in its market capitalization!

Okay, I digress. Late Friday, actually after hours, the stem-cell companies started popping on an announcement that the Prez was going to rescind the stem-cell laws that Bush put in place. I hold some STEM in an IRA account, so I’m glad to see that. But STEM, along with GERN and ASTM may be worth looking at for a trade.

I hope everyone had a relaxing weekend. Now I’m off to do some scanning and see how the futures and Asian markets open up. Happy Trading :mrgreen: