What a wonderful day for the bears! And going into today I was already set up bearish, but jumped in even more in the pre-market. I had 9 equities trades and 3 futures trade today, and it ended up being the best day this year…all by noon!
The markets all went down and hit bottom by noontime. After that they just meandered up and down a few points and ended near their lows. ES futures had almost 3 and a half million contracts traded today…haven’t seen that since last year. And the VIX caught a 22-handle, up almost 20%. Looks like fear and volatility may return to the marketplace. Thanks to the Prez for injecting it.
It’s also the first time we had 2 down days in a row since early December. That’s over 400 points from the Dow in 2 days. The Dow ran right thru its 50 day moving average, while the S&P came to rest on its own 50dma. After such a big red down candle I think we may have a bounce or at least a narrow range inside day. If the selling continues, oh boy, it could get nasty. 
Isn’t it funny when you walk into a investment firm, and you see all of the financial advisors watching CNBC — that gives me the same feeling of confidence I would have if I walked into the Mayo-clinic or Sloan Kettering and all the medical staff were watching General Hospital…
– Senior portfolio manager, UBS
Here’s a good ying-yang story…..the ying:
Obama hits Wall Street, pushes for bank limits
…and the yang:
Geithner has reservations on US bank limits
And I guess the Democrats haven’t got the message from the Tuesday election results. But then again, Senator Dodd isn’t running for re-election:
Hands Off Our Slush Fund! Thune Amendment Fails
Again, after a fairly mediocre trading day, the bulls come alive near the end, driving the indexes up, up and away. Something says we need to pullback and consolidate a bit. But it is the end of the month and end of the quarter…and soon the start of another earnings season. I’m thinking a non-dramatic grind up, for another 30-50 points in the S&P500 that may take a couple of weeks.
I had over 200 stocks that crossed up through their 200sma today. Haven’t seen anything like that in a very long time…a year maybe! And several more that are just shy of their 200ma. Does anyone think we may have seen the bottom of this whole mess? Maybe March 9th was THE bottom. Of course we won’t know for several months…you can only call the bottom after the fact. The top wasn’t called for several months after October 2007, almost a year actually. They couldn’t call the bear until the markets fell 20% off their highs. Well, the bull is now 20% above its lows. With a little bit of time and a test of those levels, we may be able to call this a bull rally 
I learned from several of my mistakes and had a good day trading. Got my money back from the S&P futures and am still holding some financials like UYG and FAS…but I took most of the profits and have just small positions left, thinking that money managers will want to keep their value up to at least end the quarter looking smarter than they did at the end of last quarter
Happy Trading!
It was opex week but the markets were pretty boring. The Dow was down a bit for the week, but all the other indexes were up a bit. We traded within the confines of Tuesday’s big candle….and except for Friday, the volume was fairly light.
Market action, I thought, was pretty good considering all the bad news… retail sales, Madoff, Detroit bailout, credit and loans. Again except for the Dow, many indexes held the 8ema….the Russell 2000 even held its 50 day moving average.
We’ve got 2 messed up weeks coming up with the holidays…market short-session on Wednesday and closed on Thursday. Also closed next Thursday. Volume will be low, but that may be perfect timing for a Santa Claus rally 
Well that was a pretty lackluster options expiration week, and I see volume moving even lower for the next 2 weeks as everyone takes some time off heading into Labor Day. With the lower volume we’ll see chop-chop-chop in this non-committed market.
The indexes have had a nice up move since mid-July, so a small pullback or some consolidation makes sense. A bigger downtrend may bring us to retest recent lows…..and beyond! On the other hand we are up against a long-term trendline coming down from the May high. A close above that may continue this summer bounce.
Commodities are looking oversold, so I’m adding DBC to the watchlist so I don’t have to look at each sector separately. DBC is getting support at its 200 day moving average, so it looks like a bounce candidate. Some other stocks looking good for this week: ELN looks to be filling the gap; so does PAET; ABK just because it has been so good to me the past several weeks. Gold and oil stocks may be plays also…I’m guessing to the upside, but we’ll have to watch closely.
Happy Trading
Published on
August 5, 2008,
8:50 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: CSCO, DJ30, futures, GOOG, morningstar, moving average, Nasdaq, oil, SP500, XLF.
The biggest up move since April Fool’s Day Two to three percent up on all the indexes….wow! And it’s not as if the FOMC said anything unexpected, three-quarters of the up move had already been achieved by the time we heard that there would be no change in rates. Oh yeah, oil went below $120 per barrel. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq have formed morningstar-like candle patterns and are on their way to their 50 day moving averages. What to expect now?
There’s been a pattern that after a big move, the next day goes in the opposite direction…sometimes with a similar veracity. But we’ve been looking for a nice trade-able rally for quite a while, so I’m looking for a bit of continuation here. At least pop above this 2-week congestion we’ve been in and take a close look at their 50ma’s 
We can hope, can’t we?
CSCO had a good earnings report and popped another 2 bucks after hours, which in turn upped the Qs, GOOG and other tech stocks. Early futures looking good for Asia and Europe and US, so maybe, just maybe, we’ll have some follow-thru. See if XLF can break through its July highs and banking shorts may need to cover causing some more upside.
Tonight, with a clear head, I’m gonna look at charts.
Published on
July 17, 2008,
9:30 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: DJ30, GOOG, HON, IBM, MAN, MAT, moving average, MSFT, QQQQ, SLB, SP500, volume.
Wow, two 200+ up days! Is that a bounce or what? But is it over now? I did close out all my positions and am back to cash.
I also expect a gap down in the QQQQ because of GOOG and MSFT and other tech stocks. But also because it bonked its head on the 20-day and 500-day moving averages. The Dow and S&P still are looking pretty strong, on increasing volume, so maybe the market can recover. Those earnings reports after the market closed were nothing to write home about….although I thought IBM was pretty good.
Tomorrow we have C starting the day and HON, SLB, MAT, and MAN among others with their earnings reports. It’s also options expiration. I do expect some consolidation / profit-taking, but I don’t want to see it go back to the lows. The charts are looking good and we’ll just have to see what fortitude the bulls have. Happy Trading 
Published on
June 26, 2008,
6:52 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: ABAT, AVNX, candlesticks, CPSL, DJ30, FPP, moving average, Nasdaq, ROYL, SP500, SSN, VLNC.
…but individual stocks do okay. It has been a stockpicker’s market this year and today just brought it home. I had great profits with VLNC and ABAT, a bit smaller with ROYL and FPP, and took a bit of the red in on SSN, AVNX and CPSL. I picked ‘em with candlestick patterns and moving averages, but you’ve probably already picked up on that throughout the posts 
Oh yeah…back to those indexes. Well the DJ30 put in a new 2-year low. The S&P500 and Nasdaq are still well above their March lows, but the S&P is close to its low close of 1273 on March 10th. The Naz still has 152 points to reach its low close of the year.
So the perfect storm today was a weaker dollar, all-time high oil prices, and some downgrades in C and GM…..all while the market is oversold. With tomorrow being a Friday before a shortened holiday week, who knows what happens. But I can tell you that next week will definitely be lower volume. Next Thursday is a short day and the markets are closed Friday. The summer doldrums are trying to tell us something
Coca Cola (KO) was the only Dow Jones Industrial stock that closed in the green. The other 29 member stocks were in the red. The futures, news and stocks started out crappy and just turned to sh!t by the end of the day. I spent the morning cutting losses and getting to cash on the sidelines. Volume was up but action was still unexciting. The VIX got above 23 but settled under. Looking for bottoms I would suspect we would get over 30 even over 40 if we were going towards a major bottom.
Can’t blame it on oil this time. Yes it moved up…a little, but the blame has to go to investment banks and the downgrade of the automakers. As if the Dow losing 220 points wasn’t bad enough, it was the third triple loss of the week and makes the week down 1,000+. The Dow is not too far from its March lows, which would also be its 200 week moving average.
On the other hand, the broader index SP-500 looks like it may be getting support at its 200 weekly moving average which is above its March lows. The Nasdaq isn’t even close to its March lows.
To bounce or not to bounce, that is the question.
Published on
June 4, 2008,
9:02 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: 8EMA, DIVX, DJ30, IAR, MNKD, moving average, MRVC, RYL, SP500, XRIT, ZIXI.
Those damn financials brought the market down…again. Volume did strengthen a bit, and overall the Dow and S&P ended as dojis, but the morning looked so strong! Actually the Q’s and the Naz had bullish engulfing patterns, which bodes well, but the Dow seems to be dragging the rest of the indexes down.
Got out of ROYL and looking for it to pullback to the 8ema…might get back in. I also entered ZIXI and MNKD today…so far so good. IAR had a strong morning but weakened in the afternoon. I took profits on half of my position when it hit the 34ema. Still looking for it to run up though. My watch list is still good to go (check the sidebar), but am adding: XRIT, MRVC, and DIVX.
Happy Trading
The Dow took a little loss on Friday, but it and all the other indexes all had an up week. The Nasdaq closed above its daily 200 day moving average, and so did the Russell 2000. Hopefully the Naz can pull the Dow and SP up with it.
Going through charts for the past couple hours and a few look nice: (ROYL), (DSTI), (CFW), (PWAV), (CPSL), (FPP) and (XRM). Gonna look for a couple short candidates also, but that’s always tougher for me.
This week brings up the Hourly payroll and Earnings reports, a volatility inducing report. Speaking of the VIX, it’s low but still has room to go lower. Remember just 18 months ago it was below 10
Happy Trading y’all
Well the Dow went down and kissed its 500ma before bouncing up a few points. The S&P500 stopped at its 34ema and the Qs stopped at its 200ma. Are they groping for support or just making a pit stop for its dive down 
Volume sure picked up today after the Feds released their notes and overall volume was above this week’s averages.
And what about that oil? Over $134 after hours. It’s been a pretty ugly 2 days in the market 
Published on
May 12, 2008,
9:12 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: 8EMA, bullish engulfing, chart, CNBC, CNTF, DVAX, HYTM, markets, momentum, moving average, MVIS.
Nothing can get this market down…not an earthquake, not an ugly loss by (S) or even a warning by (FDX). The only thing keeping this market lackluster is the volume…there isn’t any!
All the major indexes closed above the 8ema, which for me gives them a positive direction. And I had some decent winners: (MVIS), (DVAX), (SUPG) and (CNTF). I held them over so we’ll see how they do tomorrow. We have morningstar candles on the (QQQQ) and Nasdaq, while the Dow and S&P500 are close to bullish engulfing patterns. Plus I’m also going to watch these: (HYTM), (BCON), (DXCM) and (OWW). It’s good to be a trader right now
I tried to make some trades in the CNBC Millionaires Challenge, but I guess they had troubles with the website. I was finally able to get in near the end of the day and place some trades, but only completed 3 of the 5 daily trivia bonus questions….at least I got them right See ya’ in the market tomorrow.
