The S&P 500 sold off 2.2% on Friday — 5.1% over the last three days. We’ve reached the December lows and now targetting the late October/early November lows. And the VIX popped up 55% in the same time frame. I’m looking to see if the Nasdaq and Russell may show more resilience. Whatever happens, we have wiped out this year’s gains and we start over….the indexes that is. My P&L this year has started out well and I hope will continue to do so.
Now don’t get into a panic…yet. If you remember, the S&P lost 300 points at the beginning of 2009 from high to low before recovering and finishing strong…first quarter weakness seems to be a trend.
Not trying to predict market, but I expect it go lower, but it may have to make a little bounce just to suck in some more bulls. Pressure will probably continue on financials…so watch GS COF HBAN JPM. I’m going to keep special attention to A/D lines and the VIX on Monday.
Lotsa earnings this coming week….highlighted by AAPL on Monday after the close. But then AAPL will again be in the news on Wednesday when they announce, supposedly, their new tablet PC.
Be careful out there…and Happy Trading 
Kill Wall Street = Kill America…..
Obama is Killing America by Killing Wall Street …and make sure you read all the comments.
Why It’s Good News When Obama Sinks the Market
What’s the state of the economy? Keep a watch on the economic recovery….
Economic Recovery Dashboard
Watch how the recession progressed throughout the country like a virus, 2007 – 2009.
The Geography of a Recession
And finally, you probably never thought of this, but did you know that the space station had no internet access?
Astronauts (Finally) Get Internet Access
Gee, I’m already partying…tomorrow should be real fun….hic! SEED and GS made my week, or maybe my month! Looks to be a very profitable year end.
Markets closed at breakeven again, but individual stocks had some nice moves. Oh well, one more day to go. I don’t know if volume can get any smaller, but be ready to watch paint to dry.
For your reading enjoyment:
The Decade that Was for some serious reading.
And then:
The Decade in Sex Was it good for you?
Was anybody trading today? Volume was so low! I spent the day…and probably the week, just closing positions that I have been nursing….GS calls popped in the morning and PSID popped in the afternoon, allowing me to get out with a few bucks. I close out many positions here because I use mark-to-market accounting….even if I didn’t close out the positions I would still have to take the loss. So why not?
On the other hand, I did pick up some puts in QQQQ and calls in QID….just a few contracts each, looking for a correction soon.
ES usually trades a couple million contracts a day….today only 472K! Man, talk about low volume. 
Consumer Sentiment comes out tomorrow, Chicago PMI on Wednesday and Inital Claims will finish out this year on Thursday. And if the eco-data doesn’t stir things up, there’s always all the political shennanigans going on. Have a fun week…..and a Happy New Year
Well, the last full trading day of the week ended in the green. The Dow and S&P up a little and the Nasdaq and Russell up a bit more than that. Tech stocks really dragged all the markets up today….AMZN GOOG and AAPL led the way. To my disappointment, GS sucked….but that happens.
Tomorrow will be interesting. Initial and Continuing Claims, as well as Durable Goods Orders will set the mood before the markets open. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac – Christmas Eve – Dow down 4 of last 7. No matter what happens it will be on low volume….as expected for the holidays.
I won’t be around much on Christmas Eve, but, my whole family is Wishing You Happy Holidays and A Profitable 2010! Merry Christmas everyone 
Mondays continue to do their thing….acting strong. I wish the markets had closed closer to their highs, but you take what you can. GS was a winner for me as was TNA….cashing in within the first hour of trading.
Volume was way down from Friday’s and below the 10 and 30 day averages. That will probably continue to go down. 
Tomorrow brings us another reading on GDP and also Existing Home Sales. While you’re waiting here’s something to read:
Drop in inflation should bring Drop in crime
Initial Claims were up, FDX earnings lousy and Greece slumping into the abyss….today was a lump of coal in my stocking! C traded an amazing 3.766 billion shares today, which breaks the prior record of 2.674 billion shares this past summer, also by C. Quite a day, but still a bummer.
I got bitch-slapped by my GS calls…sure I had stops, but it opened gapping way down and jumping over my stops. So I sat and looking at charts most of the day, mumbling something or other all day. Near the end of the day I bought some additional GS calls because GS looks like it may have found some support.
After hours earnings reports may help out on Friday. RIMM ORCL and NKE came out with good reports, especially RIMM. Futures acting a bit stronger, so maybe GS will catch a bid also. 
Options expiration Friday, so time for gyrations and everybody looking to go flat before the holiday weeks. Yep, the next 2 weeks should show some lighter volume, possibly the lightest of the year.
Remember to spend some time away from your charts with family and friends….it is the season y’know. Happy Holidays.
Except for the Dow, the indexes ended in the green…not by much, but the Dow wasn’t down by much either. That was one of the most tamest reactions to an FOMC statement I’ve seen. We usually get at least some sort of pop ‘n drop or gap ‘n crap or something when the statement comes out. Not today….timid.
I didn’t have much going on with SEED, still in it…. But those GS calls were golden. Cashed half of them out near the highs and still holding for some more upside action….hopefully. My stop loss is already in the green, so even if things don’t go well the position will still be a winner.
We’ve got Initial and Continuing Claims tomorrow along with Leading Indicators. Also we’ll be getting some earnings reports from FDX NKE and RIMM. And don’t forget, options expiration on Friday. Come next week we’ll be seeing the volume drop off considerably. Let the merriment begin….happy holidays.
For your reading enjoyment: Hate Wall Street. Love Wall Street.
It was a fairly mediocre day…until that last hour….then dive, dive, dive! It all started upbeat with BAC repaying its TARP and Initial Claims coming in better than expected. But then the White House mentioned that the unemployment rate may tick up a bit and then GS came out with its prediction near the end of the day that wasn’t nice at all….predicting 10.4 unemployment and a 244K loss in jobs…way below consensus. Yuck! Could be an ugly day. But they may have sold the rumor and will buy the news. 
The DZZ play worked out early as gold retreated. I sold my position and then re-entered later in the day and held overnight again….so far so good. TBT also continues adding to the coffers.
It’s all about jobs on Friday as the Non-Farm Payroll comes out, as well as the latest unemployment rate. Be at your desk by 8:30AM EST!
As if employment wasn’t enough, here’s some more info:
U.S. housing market meltdown not over yet
Boy, that was some Gosh Darn Pop…or sometimes called GDP! It beat the expected number and really beat the number GS leaked yesterday to help the market dive. Even another half million unemployed people couldn’t drag it down today. But we do need to see some follow thru on Friday to make it meaningful. I would think we at least make anothere new high for the year before we crash.
The TNA held overnight last night worked as planned. My only regret was I cashed out too early, but a profit is a profit. All the indexes bounced of their 50ma, except for the Dow, which hasn’t made it down there yet. But they all made up yeasterday’s losses plus more.
We’ve got Personal Income/Spending reports on Friday, the Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment…all out by 10AM. You can check in to see how the Asian markets are shaping up this evening: Asian Stocks Rise on Japan Jobless Data, U.S. GDP; Rio Advances. And ES futures have had a narrow range of less than 3 points. So let’s hope the markets don’t get scary tomorrow. 
Happy Halloween!
Boy oh boy, lots of people wanted out of the market today….scattering for the exits! Funny I made more on my longs than I did my shorts. While I was trading today, I noticed that, at times, I had both TZA and TNA positions working. So I was both long and short the market. TZA was a position I held most of the day and TNA I was in and out four, maybe 5 times….all moneymakers, except for the small TNA position I am holding overnight, but I think it should get better tomorrow.
We’re down about 6% from the top just 6 days ago, which is the largest correction since this bull started back in March. It’s also one of only 3 times since then when we have had 4 down days in a row. We haven’t had 5, so tomorrow may be a “special” day. I’m thinking it is time for a bounce…maybe not a big one, but a bounce…thus my holding some TNA.
Some other ominous moves were GS breaking thru its 50ma, as did the S&P, Nasdaq, QQQQ. The Dow is still hanging tough, or at least tougher than the rest. This all started when GS lowered it’s GDP estimate, so Thursday morning will be exciting. And don’t forget Initial Claims!
So let’s get ready to rumble into the end of October. If we don’t move up in the next 2 days, we’ll finally have a down month, the first since February. Keep your finger on the mouse and happy trading.
Well I had a bearish position going into the morning open, and took profits early. That turned out to be perfect timing, because someone opened the gate and let all the bulls out. GS beat estimates but not by much so down they went. HOG had a horrible report and dove quickly but reversed just as fast and ended up big. Then after the close GOOG blew it out of the water and popped big time, while IBM did okay but dove down. We’ll see in the morning how that plays out. And remember we have some big time reports before the opening bell: GE BAC HAL MAT. Keep your eye on the charts!
For this evening’s reading pleasure:
Racing the Clock to Avoid Foreclosures
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter
Published on
October 12, 2009,
10:01 pm in
Daily and Trading.
Tags: ABT, AMD, BAC, C, ES, GE, GOOG, GS, HAL, IBM, JPM, Nasdaq, Russell.
Today was mostly dullsville on low holiday volume, although there were opportunities for some scalps. I went long last night with ES at 1068 and was able to cash in by the time the market opened with almost 6 points. Trading volume was about half of “normal” volume with no news and no economic data.
It was a good day to just watch. After the gap up open, markets traded in a narrow range. Mid-afternoon though brought a vicious bout of profit-taking….enough to fill all those gaps….even go into the red. The Russell and the Nasdaq finished in the red but the rest ended in the green, well off their highs, but at least green.
We did hit some new intraday highs for some of the indexes, but missed the magical 10000 Dow. The question, will the highs push us back or will we try several times to push higher? Tomorrow will still lack eco data, but earnings will start in earnest with JNJ in the morning and INTC after the bell. Later in the week we’ll get ABT JPM C GS AMD GOOG IBM BAC GE HAL among many others….all in options expiration week. Oh boy, this should be a fun week!
And if you’re an active trader you may want to read this: Democrats Weigh Tax On Financial Transactions
