Tag Archive for 'futures'

This is getting boring

Published on March 10, 2010, 10:41 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

Buying in the morning then selling in the afternoon and ending at breakeven….been going on all week. Maybe the jobless claims can shake it up on Thursday.

I just don’t understand these economic reports at times. Like today’s Inventories report: they revised December inventories from -0.8% to -1.0% and then report that January’s inventories are up +0.2%. What the $%@&*! It must be about government reporting that someone came up with, “Don’t be a dick for a tick!”

Today was newsworthy in the S&P futures as it has posted 9 consecutive higher closes. That’s a long stretch. Now I’m looking to see what is the longest stretch….but this evening’s futures tell me that we may not have to worry about it as they are already down 5 points.

The VIX has been up for 3 consecutive days after being down for 8 days. Thursday is shaping up to be exciting. Maybe it will be the day to cash my VIX calls and TZA positions. :mrgreen:

Here’s an hourly chart of the SPY. Notice the unfilled gap from last Friday. Sure looks like a target to me….and Thursday may be the day we go for it!

Going nowhere…fast!

Published on January 20, 2010, 11:35 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

So, yesterday was a non-event…we’re right back to where we ended last Friday!

The short positions I had worked out fantastically, TZA and EDZ. My earnings play unintentionally also worked out. I had started a short position in EBAY via some put options, looking for a bad report and cashing out on Thursday. But, EBAY took it on the chin Wednesday. By the close I had cashed out my position….and very happy I did after seeing EBAY’s report….it popped almost 2 dollars from its low in afterhours trading. Sometimes luck does pay.

Tomorrow’s outlook is up in the air, it’s definitely tough to hold for more than a day. Bellweathers GS GOOG AMD AXP among others report earnings. Let’s not forget economic reports Initial Claims, Oil Inventories, and Leading Indicators. And the futures this evening are loving that Chinese GDP report, almost 11% year over year! Don’t let the chop hurt you. :twisted:

In case you haven’t heard yet….
Obama’s Agenda In Jeopardy After GOP Victory in Senate

Investors Abandoning Money Market Funds – Not A Good Sign For Equities

Winter Olympics without snow?
Olympic officials say they’ll be trucking in snow

When will the madness end?

Published on January 11, 2010, 10:55 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

So we now have a 6-day winning streak for the S&P and 13-out-of-15 up days going back to December. What keeps feeding this strength? Must be great news like: UPS laying off 1800 workers, or maybe AOL laying off 1200, or maybe the entire U.S. laying off 85,000 in December. Or maybe the cheap gas and food prices….or great housing….or the higher taxes. Madness, pure madness :!:

Again, I continue to be short…and daytrading long to hedge….and ZLC was my big winner today….but I wish I had held on to SEED. Did you catch that move?

Even though volume was low, new 52-week highs really stood out, mostly because of the gap up open. Volume stills is a bit disconcerting. You would think opex would bring everybody out to play. I think the highs are showing froth not strength.

After the close AA came out with the first of this season’s earnings report….and it was a disappointment. I’m expecting my short positions to pay off on Tuesday and maybe Wednesday, including AA puts. Futures this evening are already showing weakness…and hoping it continues for a day or two.

And for your late-night perusal:
Obama Report Card for 2009

Alcoa’s Miss Not Yet a Strikeout for Earnings Season

Still overbought…and getting more so

Published on January 10, 2010, 9:11 pm in Opinions and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: .

Boy are we overbought…just look at those stochastics, RSI, and prices. You gotta wonder what’s pushing this market up. And now we come onto options expiration week, the start of earnings season and a boatload of economic news. Now, if we can increase the volume, we should see some volatility. :!:

And this evening, futures are breaking out to new highs again. I still think this is going to end bad.

A story about commercial real estate:
A Slow-Motion Wreck

Everything you need to know about unemployment and the latest jobs reports:
Drowning by Numbers

Will China lead the way down?
Contrarian Investor Sees Economic Crash in China

Or will it be an “inside” job?
The Other Plot to Wreck America

The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. -Bernard Baruch

My shorts are sure looking foolish….for now. :oops:

Last Year and This Year

Published on January 2, 2010, 11:03 pm in News, Opinions and Psyche. 2 Comments Tags: , .

First of all, thank you all for your best wishes and I hope 2010 becomes your healthiest, happiest and most profitable year ever. :!:

I know this is the time of year when everyone speculates, guesses and fortune-tells what the new year will unveil. I’m not one of those guys. But, here is a list of articles you can read that will get you thinking:

What I do do, is review my last year. I gather my trading journal, trading notes, TradeManager reports and review my trading for the year. And this is what I found: I placed 571 equity trades last year, 68% of those trades were profitable. Those trades allowed me to increase my trading account by 22%.

My winning trades lasted on average 9 days. But get this, my losing trades lasted on average 25 days! That means I hold on to my losers just way too long! So what do I need to do? Cut my losers faster….and probably keep my winners longer!

If you use Tradestation as your trading software and broker, TradeManager gets you all kinds of reports, graphs and charts that can show you how your trading and your performance. I’m sure different software and brokers have similar programs, I’m just familiar with TS. I still have to review my futures trading, but I use a different broker and software for futures trading, Infinity Futures.

Every trading day I create my “Daily Trading Sheet.” On it I keep my active trades and a few stocks that I’m going to keep an eye on during the day. I jot notes about what the market is doing, or what a particular stock is doing, or, as I look them over, I doodle a lot. :D It’s interesting to reminisce about your good days and those bad ones. Hopefully you have more good than bad.

Oh well, this post is getting long in the tooth and it’s getting late, so I’ll just put an end to it and try again tomorrow. Hope you’re having a great weekend.

What I saw

Published on December 15, 2009, 11:09 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

Not much. I didn’t get to my trading desk until the afternoon. I did notice the markets went down when I was looking for them to go up. :( But, that’s what markets do.

I didn’t get rid of anything and I did add some GS calls near the end of the day….hopefully near the bottom.

Why did the homebuilders like HOV and BZH get goosed today? I’ve added them to my watchlist for tomorrow.

ES futures in a small range this evening, 2 points. FOMC rate decision tomorrow, after morning of Housing and Building info and CPI.

See, I told you I didn’t see much. 8)

Choppy

Published on November 30, 2009, 10:20 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Monday was a rollercoaster kind of day….up and down and up and down and ending up….near the highs. Down was the general expectation with Friday’s action and Dubai still in the news. But, the Chicago PMI was better than expected. So the markets ended positive after all the mixed messages.

Now remember the last several weeks, Monday the “big” up day and a slow bleed for the rest of the week. Although up today, not by much, so a slow bleed could hurt. And here’s another tidbit, the markets have been down on the first day of December for the last 3 years in a row!

On the other hand, futures and the Asian markets look a bit frisky this evening, maybe itching for a continuation to the upside. China is supposed to come out with its PMI so that may make or break it. And then we come out with Construction Spending, Pending Home Sales and Auto Sales. So let’s see where the news takes us. :twisted:

So many crashes, so little time

Published on November 29, 2009, 6:59 pm in News, Opinions and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , .

We have the Dubai crash and the Tiger Woods crash to deal with…..the Woods crash will be easier to deal with because he is man enough to just say, “It’s my fault.” Bankers and politicians on the other hand, have to make sure they can blame it on something or someone. I think both these crashes will be less newsworthy as we go forward.

The holiday week was just like the recent weeks….big pop on Monday and a slow drain for the rest of the week. Of course the end of this week was a bit more severe. The futures this evening are looking like a pop for this Monday also. We’ll see if the pattern continues.

The upcoming week is full of economic data….including the big ones Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment reports on Friday. Some of the others: Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, Auto & Truck Sales, Initial & Continuing Claims and Factory Orders, among others, will be moving the markets.

Some interesting reading:
Asia trip, Dubai news, T-Day wish! This is a great read about what the Asians think about the U.S.

Climate change: this is the worst scientific scandal of our generation

U.A.E. Will Support Banks in Dubai Credit Crisis

Monday Monday

Published on November 22, 2009, 11:09 pm in Psyche, Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Sunday evening’s future action is looking good for Monday…but it’s still early. Monday has been the best day of the week for average daily returns in the S&P 500 for the past two months. Tuesday was the worst day of the week for the month to date, while Friday was the worst day of the week for the two-month period. We have a shortened week coming up and most likely volume will be low.

Last week started out with a bang, but fizzled out by Friday, although not giving back everything. Volume was below average for the week, unusual in that options expiration week gets active, expecially on Friday.

This week, all the news will be stuffed into the first 3 days. Monday has Existing Home Sales and Inventory, Tuesday has 3rd quarter GDP and Wednesday has Initial Claims moved up from its usual Thursday report. So have a fun holiday week. :P

Another Dull Day

Published on November 11, 2009, 11:15 pm in Daily and Tools. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Another dull day on decreasing volume, but resolving to the up side all around. Near the end of the day I was looking at getting short, but I kept hearing “never short a dull market” in my head over and over. So I didn’t. Not much to do in a market like this, so I worked around the office.

The biggest thing I did today was finally order a new chair. It’s been almost 2 years since I first mentioned I was looking at getting a new chair. My Swingseat is due to arrive in about a week. I’ll definitely post my review as soon as I sit in it. :D

Futures are looking down this evening, but it’s a long way from market open….unless of course you like to trade futures in the wee hours of the morning. In a week devoid of economic news so far, tomorrow brings us the weekly Initial Claims report. How that report shows will most likely define the markets for the next day or two. I guess I’ll go see what sleep feels like. G’night.

A Learning Day

Published on November 9, 2009, 11:09 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

Today was the day to learn which way this market will decide to go. We had a follow-thru of last week’s action to the upside in a very big way. First the indexes were up 2%+, the NYSE Advance/Decline volume was positive 17:1, and volume, although on the lean side, was still greater than last Friday’s volume.

Supposedly the exuse to move up big was that traders cheered G-20 promises of additional fiscal stimulus. Equity markets moved higher first across the Asia/Pacific markets and then in Europe after the central bankers and finance ministers agreed to “continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is assured.” Who cares about all the unemployed, just keep pumping, or is that printing money until things are better.

My little double bottom I had on the VIX 15 minute chart didn’t materialize and continued down, reducing volatility and showing the markets to the upside. I didn’t trade much today nor twitter much, as I was moderating the Hit & Run Candlesticks trading room. But I did take some half profits on half positions in CHIP and SPPI, which I have been nursing for a week. Here’s hoping that both positions continue to the upside.

The Dow made new highs today::DJ-091109
But the S&P500 did not confirm that:SP-091109so either the S&P gets repelled by the double top or confirms a break thru to new highs. We’ll see on Tuesday how that works out. Lookout for “Turnaraound Tuesday” though. :mrgreen:

Futures are really blah tonite and working on a 2 point range. Thought they would be a bit more excited than that, but the night is young. See you on the field tomorrow….good luck. :!:

Rollercoaster ride

Published on November 3, 2009, 3:40 am in Daily, Psyche and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

What a wild Monday…run up first then a wild downside swing and then recovery, with the indexes ending in the green, except for the RUT, but just barely red. A trader’s dream environment though, with volatility, the VIX with a 4 point range, and a 180 point swing in the Dow. And as I noted yesterday, the 3x ETFs were a goldmine. I used BGZ and TZA during the wild downside move to cash in, and the ES futures on the upside moves….it was a good thing. :mrgreen:

Here’s the 15-minute chart of the S&P500. The 1-hour dive at noon was awesome, if you caught it. I’m glad I chose to eat at my desk today!SP-091102

The eco reports were all positive today, with a pop in home sales and a real good ISM report. Tomorrow we have Factory Orders and Auto / Truck Sales later in the day. Oh yeah, and the FOMC meeting starts Tuesday with a conclusion on Wednesday. So we’ll get an announcement from them on Wed. with similar announcments from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Speaking of banks….Last Friday, 9 banks were closed by the FDIC, bringing the total number of banks closed this year to 115. Which brings up some funny anecdotes about banks: “The economy is so bad, when you buy a toaster your free gift with the purchase is a bank!” And another: “The economy is so bad that if the bank returns your check marked “Insufficient Funds” you can call them and ask if they meant you or them.” heehee.

Okay, trade well everybody :!: