Tag Archive for 'DNDN'

Again….

Published on April 15, 2009, 6:55 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

…don’t short a dull market. And boy was it dull, until about 2:30PM EDT, and wow, did it take off. Isn’t this a sign of a bull market when even bad news can’t bring it down? Bad retail sales, bad CPI (unless you don’t eat or use a car), bad earnings, or any news for that matter can give the bears enough energy to tank this thing.

I sat and watched through it all. Yesterday, I made several months worth of profits on DNDN, so I didn’t really have the energy to trade….yes, a hangover :oops: But, with a clearer head, I would have bought the banks, especially HBAN and FITB, or the ETFs: FAS, UYG or XLF. The morning provided for some nice entries and the afternoon provided for some nice profit taking. Yes, I paper trade when I don’t feel like using real money ;-)

Volume was down today on the upside, while it was up yesterday on the downside…a bit disconcerting. The VIX continued down, now in the mid-30’s…a good sign. The market relieved some of that overbought pressure. The Trader’s Almanac is showing that tomorrow and Friday to be bullish. In fact, April Expiration Day has been up the last 10 out of 12. We’ll see how that goes.

My time with DNDN

Published on April 14, 2009, 5:59 pm in Opinions, Psyche and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , .

I had several traders ask me today, “When did you get into DNDN and why?” So I thought I’d do some trade analysis.

First of all, I’ve traded DNDN off and on for 2 years and here are some of the highlights. It was 2 years ago this month when Dendreon had a similar announcement that made it pop just like today and retreat, just like today. I missed that one, but bought in the next day about $14 and held it for a week until it got to just shy of $20 and got out with a nice profit.

About a month later, it got a notice from the FDA that it needed more information and DNDN dropped like a rock. It wasn’t until October 2007 that I tried again, buying in at about $8 and it went down from there….and I held on as it went down. It never approached the 8 dollar range again until October of the next year. Another announcement and another pop. DNDN popped to $10 and I sold half of my position at about $9….again holding half thinking this was going to go….but it didn’t :oops:

Down it went again. I bought in (yes I doubled-down) at the $4 level, which held for several months. And again it started down. You know of course if I had had stops in I would be out of this long ago….but it was getting personal. I had a love-hate relationship with DNDN. (I think I recall something about trading and emotions) I bought in some more at the $2.60 level and had a cost average of about $3.60 for my DNDN holdings.

It then began its trek up into today. I was very enthusiastic when price crossed up through the 8ema. I got absolutely giddy when the 8ema crossed up through the 34ema. I sold a quarter of my position at about $5 and another quarter at $7, which was yesterday. And then afterhours they halted trading. Oh my god! Not again!

There was nothing I could do now. I actually had a restless night, but hoping for the best.

This morning, I got to my desk and was looking for news. I knew DNDN had scheduled a 9AM conference, but was hoping for news. And it came at 8:30…..

PROVENGE Significantly Prolongs Survival in Men With Advanced Prostate Cancer in Pivotal Phase 3 IMPACT Study

Ahhhhhhh…good news :!: But still halted. I didn’t want to miss this. I figured…what would I be happy with? Okay 3.6 times 5 equals 18 dollars. So I put in a limit sell order for $18.01 and waited for DNDN to open for trading. About 5 minutes later, my computer said “Order filled” and I thought “GREAT!” And then I looked at my order and it got filled at $19.20….wow!

No, I didn’t get the top, but I got a great rate of return and glad to have DNDN off my screen after 2 years. And that’s all there is. I’m a happy trader tonight :lol:

Is it time for a pullback?

Published on April 14, 2009, 10:30 am in Intraday and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

Who knows? I’m quite bullish, as are many many others. And the markets are reaching an overbought reading on the stochastics and RSI oscillators. So I’m going into a defensive mode trying to be cautious and not lose any profits. Most of this morning I was selling off full or partial positions. I of course sold off all the DNDN I had left, and parts of positions in OCNF and STEM. At least I’ve guaranteed myself a profit…now to see if it gets bigger or smaller.

Buy the dips?

Published on April 5, 2009, 3:24 pm in Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , .

Have you noticed how the market sells off just slightly and indicators correct to oversold…ready to turn again and go up? And that’s a bit different in our previous bear market rallies when volume was big on the downside and small on the upturns. That’s a big change from a couple months ago when we needed to see a 400 point dive to nudge the indicators into oversold, then some low volume upticks to get it overbought. And we haven’t seen the VIX with a 30-handle close since January.

On Friday we closed having the best 4-week gain in 70 years :!: And the big markets have closed above major resistance lines. So if the Nasdaq can stay above 1600 and the S&P500 above 800, I think we’re still good to go…to the upside. Oh yeah, and the Dow above 8000 ;-)

The only bad part is that people are getting bullish. Yes it makes us all feel good, but it also usually means a bear is waiting for us around the corner. Yes, trader sentiment is a contrarian indicator. So have we started a bull market or do we still need to test that “devil low” in the S&P in early March…666. I don’t think that would look good for the Prez and his administration (nor the Plunge Protection Team).

This week has been outstanding for my long-term/IRA accounts, more so than for my trading account. I try to siphon off trading profits and put them into long-term accounts…mainly because the retirement program as an entrepreneur is lousy :oops: But, that aside, I made some wonderful profits on DNDN, UYG and URE this week. DNDN is a speculative play waiting for the end of April for FDA announcements. But, on Friday some “announcement of an announcement” made the stock pop and I had to take advantage of it for a quick 100 percent return. Still have a position waiting for the FDA rulings that may give me a 1000% return in seconds. While I do trade URE and UYG on a regular basis, I’ve had some sitting for a month since those outrageous lows in the beginning of March….and again I just have to take some off the table when they double.

My trading account only had one “real” winner in RIMM….who had spectacular earnings report and guidance. This was a strict earnings play. It was tempered by some losing plays in the S&P futures (ESM09). Every loser was a counter-trend play. That is going short when the index was long….and vice versa. Monday was my worst day when I kept trying to go long even though the index was putting in a trend day down:!:

So before I go looking for some new plays, I have to review my mistakes and successes in all my trades. I also review some winners that I didn’t find in my scans, and see if I can modify them to pick up some of them. It seemed quite a few have slipped through the cracks for me anyway. Check these tickers out…I hope you caught them: TM HMC SHI JKHY DGS ZZ ASH SNE. Check out their charts. If you had got into any of them a month ago, you would be breaking the bank :lol:

I’m going to work on refining some scans, then check into the futures markets and the early Asian market open. Happy Trading.

Not Bad…

Published on March 16, 2009, 9:37 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

From yesterday’s post you know I was looking for a down open and hoping for a reversal to the upside. But of course, the markets never do what you think or hope…and many times the complete opposite…like today. I thought the Group of 20 would just muddle through, but finance chiefs vowed to work together to clean up toxic assets from banks’ balance sheets…a promise, but no action. The overseas markets had a good day, which brought futures up, which continued into our market openings. Oh yeah, and Ben Bernanke had an interview Sunday night on 60 minutes that sounded good.

But, the markets could hold the gains, and big gains they were. The indexes closed near the open, so even though we lost all the intraday gains, we really didn’t lose much off the gains of last week….the S&P500 was off -2.66 and the Dow off only -7 points. The advancers still beat out decliners, but close enough to call it even.

Infinity Brokerage, my futures broker, had a problem first thing in the morning. I wasn’t in a trade, but when they came back up I was still apprehensive so I worked the simulator for the rest of the day. I still traded a few equities: DNDN lost a bit from last weeks big rise. I jumped into FEED on the gap up and closed out a couple hours later for a 40 cent gain, or 25%.

With CNBC on in the background, I noticed that the biggest story of the day was AIG and its bonuses. Now I digress here a bit, but I have been an owner of several businesses, as a sole proprietor, partner, or majoe shareholder of a C Corporation. When my companies were successful, I paid bonuses to those people that performed well and I wanted to retain. Those that were laggards didn’t get a bonus. Some quit and others stayed on to collect their salary. Some of my companies floundered, never “made it” and thus no one got any bonus and some employees, like myself, didn’t even get paid their salaries. But that’s the way it is. So, as an owner, I’d say screw the bonuses, what are the people going to do. Quit? I don’t think so. So why voluntarily part with cash?

And as a total oxymoron, shares of AIG finished up, despite President Obama’s vow to explore “every legal avenue” to block the firm’s recently announced employee bonuses. Stop the bailouts! Let bad companies go under…pull the plug. It just goes to show you why AIG should have been placed in receivership, broken up and sold off. The private sector will always be one step ahead of the government. Free markets will figure out what to do and be way ahead of the game :!: green beer

Congress, if you pass bills and make laws as bad as TARP, the U.S. taxpayer should be getting a lot of money back for non-performance of an elected official.

Happy St. Patrick’s Day everyone! Don’t forget to drink some green beer tomorrow :mrgreen:

4 in a row!

Published on March 15, 2009, 8:39 pm in Opinions, Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

What a week…after making lows on Monday, we had 4 up days. Haven’t seen that in 4 months. Feels good, doesn’t it? But, with all those finance ministers meeting and talking over the weekend, we shouldn’t really expect anything exciting and will probably see a little downer of an opening on Monday.

Since the indexes wavered between positive and negative during the day, I was a real “bi-trader”…I went both ways also…but my longs were more successful than my shorts. Just goes to show you, don’t short a dull market ;) But there were a few stocks that moved up with a gusto: DNDN continued its trek up…and in a related play, XBI, the biotech index was also up strong…again.

It’s options expiration week, with quadruple witching on Friday. Quadruple witching occurs on the third Fridays of March, June, September and December and leads to increased volume and fluctuations in the markets. On those days contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, stock options and single stock futures all expire on the same day. And before that we have a few reports coming out that may affect the markets: Industrial Production, Housing Starts, PPI, CPI and Jobless Claims.

And now I digress for an opinion: What the $%@&* is going on with AIG? We give ‘em a taxpayer bailout and they turn around and give it out as bonuses?? What’s this sh!t about a contract? Who the hell wants them to “retain” these employees anyway? If they went bankrupt they would not get a bonus. When I was employed I would have a review once or twice a year to grade my performance and then I would have to beg for a raise, much less a bonus. Fuck’em :!:

Off my soapbox now….Have a great opex week and Happy Trading :oops:

Wasn’t that fun!

Published on March 12, 2009, 10:08 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , .

I had my best day in the S&P futures market today and did well in a couple of stocks, DNDN, FAS and HW. I guess having a profitable day is what makes it fun :lol:

The doji day yesterday told us to follow the market in the direction that it opens. Well it opened right where it closed yesterday and trickled down for the first few minutes. But it quickly reversed and never looked back. In matter of fact, it was hard to come up with a pullback to make an entry! The market continued to go up and closed near its highs.

The only negative was that volume was down. It did pick up near the end, but the trading during the day seemed like a holiday. Maybe today was the long lost Santa Claus rally ;)

Doing some quick stock scans this evening I came up with a boatload of bullish engulfing patterns. My one scan looks for stock between $1 and $20 with an 10-day volume average of at least 220,000 shares. It came up with 468 stocks. If you look at all stocks at all price levels, there were nearly 700. I have to go and start tightening the criteria to get to a reasonable number of prospects.

My sympathies to those that suffer from paraskavedekatriaphobia, the fear of Friday the 13th. Yes…tomorrow…watch for the black cats and don’t walk under any ladders.

What no bailout today?

Published on February 19, 2009, 9:01 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , .

I didn’t hear any bailout announcements today, but we sure did hear from CNBC’s Rick Santelli and his opinion of the Presidents mortgage bailout…

The government is promoting bad behavior… do we really want to subsidize the losers’ mortgages… How about we all stop paying our mortgage!

See and hear it all right here.

The DJ30 closed below its November lows. I still find it hard to understand why these 30 stocks are so important!! But anyways, this area has been support for the Dow in November, as well as, 2003, 2002, 1998 and 1997. All the other indexes still have a way to go, so there is still plenty to keep an eye out for. The pre-market and first half hour of the market open were looking very “normal” as if we were going to take-off after Wednesday’s doji….. But soon reality set in and down we went.

I haven’t been as active trading stocks as I have been trading the futures, the S&P e-mini ES specifically. I am holding STEM and DNDN for “playing” and I have been adding to UYG in an IRA…..And I still diligently run my scans each evening and keep looking for that perfect chart….but I still haven’t found it…yet. I’ll try again tomorrow :mrgreen:

It took the whole day….

Published on February 12, 2009, 11:33 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

….but we finally turned it around. We were down all day, but that last hour was a beauty. All the indexes, except for the DJ30, (who cares about 30 stocks out of 8,000) moved to the upside in pretty dramatic fashion.

I picked up a couple of stocks in the beginning of the day, STEM and DNDN. But about 1PM my Internet connection went down and I didn’t get it back until well after the markets had closed. They were just starter positions so I didn’t worry that much….but it got me to thinking what I would do if I had 6 or 7 full positions on the line. I think I’m going to work on a disaster recovery plan over the long weekend.

It would be nice to see some follow-thru on Friday to that last-hour reversal. Remember though that we are going into a long weekend so many traders will want to be flat going into the weekend….me included.

Unexpected, but nice!

Published on February 5, 2009, 11:25 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

Last night I was thinking that nothing was going to move the market much in either direction…just sit around and wait for Friday’s Employment numbers. Boy was I wrong! Besides a big downdraft in the first 30 minutes, the rest of the day was up, up and away….just the opposite of Wednesday.

It was one of those really tiring days trying to trade. Besides babysitting my positions, UYG, DNDN and ONCF, I kept watching the ES charts to see if I could catch a trend…..nope. I was able to scalp, catching about 30 ticks to the upside…but it was back and forth, catching chop chop. Although the S&P futures did go above 850, it could not sustain it and backed down near the end of the day and even more afterhours.

A very anticipated report on Friday morning, which I would normally say would show us the way of the market. But, as you can see today, there is no technicals or fundementals that can predict. So, I’ll just say…Good Luck and Happy Trading :!:

Amazing…

Published on October 6, 2008, 8:30 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

The Dow had a 450+ point rally late in the day…and the index still closes down -369 ! I just sat around and watched. This is history breaking, once in a lifetime market action going on here. I was busy moving from chart to chart checking out the action. I did do a daytrade on DNDN just to make some lunch money ;)

Some of the indicators I was watching were incredible: Advancing issues vs declining was at one time -3000 and A/D volume was 1 to 270! The VIX almost made it to 60. New High/Lows was 1 new high to 1627 new lows…wow!

Oh where oh where is that bottom :?:

What a downer

Published on August 18, 2008, 8:58 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , .

I had to leave for most of the day, but before I left I thought we were close to a bottom for the day. I bought some calls in the Qs and SMH and put a trailing stop 10 cents below the price when I left. When I got back, I was stopped out of both for a loss, but that was a lot better if I had not put in the stops :-)

I also played an earnings play, buying CNTF before the announcement after the close. They swung to a profit, but guidance sucked…so down it went. Screw it, I’m just not an earnings player and I vow to stop. But after a while I think, “Gee that would have been a good play”…but for me it never works. So I sold CNTF after hours for a loss. Today sucked for me :oops:

I did have some green stocks, I just didn’t get out of them….DNDN, IAR, CPSL, were all good. I’m looking for them to continue. They acted well for a down market day.

I think I’m also going to reduce my trading for the next 2 weeks as volume goes down, and wait for after Labor Day when all the players come back. Not that I won’t trade, but I will be reducing my positions and I also won’t be in front of my screen all the time as I finish up some business and personal items. Seems like the best time to do it.

Happy Trading! …and if you have a fishing pole, put the line in the water :lol: