What the $%@&* Trading!

Interesting tidbit heard on CNBC today….the S&P500 is down 43% from its highs in October 2007. BUT, if you had not traded the 10 worst days since then, you would be up 4%….now that’s timing

I also did some good timing today with HBAN and XING along with picking up some additional shares of UYG. I’ve also been able to hedge all my bets with S&P500 futures, or ES. Playing the futures keeps me on my toes, since none of the trades have lasted more than 60 minutes…and some as fast as 90 seconds. I did 8 round turns with ES today.

Futures are looking good this evening But then again, they were looking good yesterday…..

John Bogle was on CNBC this morning and his words stick in my mind:

Orgy of speculation …most speculative market in US history …No one knows the outcome.

That just summed up the entire week, much less today!!

The problem is people are pulling money out of their accounts, including 401k’s and IRAs. Hedge funds are selling in droves to cover redemption requests. When that stops, is when we go up. Unfortunately, that will leave all those people out of the picture and later realizing that they always sell at the bottom.

At some point big money value investors will put their dollars back to work. Shorts will fight it, won’t win, and we get some panic short covering. Then, momentum traders will finally go long. When will all this happen?…………..hell if I know….but soon

For a little humor check out the Investor Mind.

Well my drop-n-pop scenario almost made it. But then Alan Greenspan came on CNBC and brought it back down The Nasdaq showed strength most of the day. Even the others were acceptable consolidations after a run-up. …and by others I mean the S&P, DJ30, Russell. Except for the DJ, they all were still able to close above the 8ema.

Even with the crummy red indexes, there was a lot of green on my screen and I just happened to make some good entries and exits on NKTR, DELL and SCA. ASTI was an early entry that got busted right away and got out a few pennies below entry.

There still seems to be quite a few nice charts out there. Now to see if I can pick the right ones.

The Dow ended up for the week….not by much, and the other indexes, that is, Naz, S&P, Russell, ended down…not by much. The economy was a bit more definitive…inflation up, oil up, comodities up, and consumer sentiment down. Technically though, the indexes are showing a strong candlestick signal…the MorningStar breaking through the 8ema…and stochastics oversold and turning up. I’m thinking at least a couple days to the upside

Besides the usual economic reports, as in oil inventories and unemployment, there are a few zingers in the mix, like May PPI and May housing starts. Also, all the major investment banks report earnings this week…and it’s options expiration week with June options expiring this Friday! We should expect some volatility along the way.

Most of my watchlist from last week is still active, but I’m adding a few: LSI, AACC, and CMLT.

My active trading CNBC portfolio is still behind my “inactive” portfolio that only gets cash from answering trivia questions. I lost money in the first week of the contest and haven’t recovered…of course I haven’t dumped the losers yet either. If I could only pretend it was real money I know I’d do better. I guess that’s why I’m not an advocate of “paper trading.”

After the ribs and potato salad…and several Bud Lights…I started reviewing the last week of trades (not many), and going thru charts…and more charts.

The indexes dropped well over 3%, the Dow almost 4%. It looks like the market “water” and oil don’t mix. As the price of oil goes up, the equity market goes down. The Dow has broken may of the major moving averages, but is extremely oversold with its daily stochastics, although the weekly stochs still have some downside to go. The S&P500 is still holding its 50 day moving average. The Nasdaq and Russells are still holding up. What will this shortened week bring us?

I, as well as several others, have been thinking the oil market has peaked, but it keeps moving upward. I don’t think it can hold though. I’ll check back after it hits $150/bbl

Now to find some good charts….

P.S. My best CNBC portfolio is the one that does no trading but just answers the trivia questions. Now doesn’t that beat all

The Nasdaq has poked through the 200 day moving average, but the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 are still attacking from underneath. So we should see what happens this week…march through or turn back. Remember we should see volume slip as the week goes along as traders start extending their long Memorial Day weekends.

The week was pretty good for trading…loved the action in (CNTF) on Friday which way more than offset my losses in (DVAX)

My CNBC Millionaire’s Contest account has been growing, but only because I’ve been answering the bonus trivia questions

Gonna keep an eye on (HYTM) (WATG) (XFML) and (PLM) on Monday. See you on the trading field

No, not on why the market acts like it does but answers to the CNBC Bonus Bucks Trivia contests. Remember, each answer is worth 2 grand in CNBC bogus bucks.

ForBestAdvice.com

Ant&Sons.com

Nothing can get this market down…not an earthquake, not an ugly loss by (S) or even a warning by (FDX). The only thing keeping this market lackluster is the volume…there isn’t any!

All the major indexes closed above the 8ema, which for me gives them a positive direction. And I had some decent winners: (MVIS), (DVAX), (SUPG) and (CNTF). I held them over so we’ll see how they do tomorrow. We have morningstar candles on the (QQQQ) and Nasdaq, while the Dow and S&P500 are close to bullish engulfing patterns. Plus I’m also going to watch these: (HYTM), (BCON), (DXCM) and (OWW). It’s good to be a trader right now

I tried to make some trades in the CNBC Millionaires Challenge, but I guess they had troubles with the website. I was finally able to get in near the end of the day and place some trades, but only completed 3 of the 5 daily trivia bonus questions….at least I got them right See ya’ in the market tomorrow.

(AIG) and oil prices brought down the DOW almost 1%, but the Nasdaq was only down a quarter point and the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcaps closed in the green So I’m not sure what the market is telling me, but the stocks I watched and played were not too bad: (IAR), (DVAX), (CTDC), (XRM). They made up for the losers (BCON) and (SIGA).

Oil went ballistic, but I’m wondering if that’s an exhaustion gap up ending in a hammer. All the airline stocks suffered today and (FDX) took a tumble after hours when they warned oil prices will cut into this quarter’s earnings. And the market has been doing not too bad with all this bad news. Let’s see if anything happens during the weekend.

Have a great weekend and spend some time looking at charts. It really doesn’t matter what the news is, it’s all in the charts

Anybody playing the CNBC Millionaire’s Challenge?

That’s about all to do, except for watching the grass grow or the paint to dry. We are teetering, swinging gentley and slowly, side to side, waiting for 2:15PM EDST Wednesday when the Fed tells us they are cutting another quarter point before they stop …or maybe they will take the high road and say they are done. We can wait another day and a half, but we do have a whole bunch of earnings reports tomorrow that has just got to put some waves into the market. Doji’s all around for the markets today on very low volume…and I expect the same for Tuesday.

Some indiviudal winners: (NURO) (SYNM) (MVIS) (XRM) and losers: (SIGA) (STEM).

Anybody signing up for CNBC’s Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge?

Hope you weren’t holding BSC…unless you were short. I was short on Friday, but didn’t have the balls to hold over the weekend. Yes, millionaire status lost again.

Misery loves company, so you may want to listen to some of the stories or watch some of the videos on I Got Cramered. Ouch, ouch, ouch! This is a website dedicated to all the poor advice and subsequent investor damage caused by Jim Cramer on CNBC.

But seriously folks, the financial companies and banks will be taking a hit today. Will the rest of the market follow suit? The January lows should come into play. The VIX will definitely be flying high today as fear and uncertainty floods the market place.

And Happy St. Patrick’s Day

While snowed in this past weekend and spending way too much time on the Internet, I came across a DonHarrold.net video. This particular topic, while touting his own service, reminisces through last year’s pumping of our “great” market and economy. Since I have CNBC on in the background during the day, I remember many of these interviews and dialogs. With 20/20 hindsight, you have to scratch your head and say, “What were these guys talking about?”