What the $%@&* Trading!

Wednesday the indexes closed in the green….but not by much, especially considering we were up triple digits in the DJ30. Where did the bounce go. Okay so I was thinking then that it may show up today, but, the morning futures are not looking good at the time I’m writing this. Sure there’s still two and a half hours until the open, I’m just hoping it’s not the usual oil up - stocks down kind of day. C’mon markets, give us something new, really mess with our minds


On the other hand, the DJ30 is basing at the March lows and is oversold. It does seem as a time to look for buy signals to at least nibble on some stocks. If we break to the downside….boy oh boy, we may be hurtin’. Then let’s hope we stop at the January lows.

90 minutes until open…Futures eroding as I post….Capitulation before the bounce?

After the ribs and potato salad…and several Bud Lights…I started reviewing the last week of trades (not many), and going thru charts…and more charts.

The indexes dropped well over 3%, the Dow almost 4%. It looks like the market “water” and oil don’t mix. As the price of oil goes up, the equity market goes down. The Dow has broken may of the major moving averages, but is extremely oversold with its daily stochastics, although the weekly stochs still have some downside to go. The S&P500 is still holding its 50 day moving average. The Nasdaq and Russells are still holding up. What will this shortened week bring us?

I, as well as several others, have been thinking the oil market has peaked, but it keeps moving upward. I don’t think it can hold though. I’ll check back after it hits $150/bbl

Now to find some good charts….

P.S. My best CNBC portfolio is the one that does no trading but just answers the trivia questions. Now doesn’t that beat all

Wow, look at oil go Over $127 per barrel. Wonder what it’s going to do to all the other markets? Maybe oil is setting up for an exhaustion run-up.

And my long-term hold (DVAX) is taking a dumper

(AIG) and oil prices brought down the DOW almost 1%, but the Nasdaq was only down a quarter point and the Russell 2000 and the S&P Midcaps closed in the green So I’m not sure what the market is telling me, but the stocks I watched and played were not too bad: (IAR), (DVAX), (CTDC), (XRM). They made up for the losers (BCON) and (SIGA).

Oil went ballistic, but I’m wondering if that’s an exhaustion gap up ending in a hammer. All the airline stocks suffered today and (FDX) took a tumble after hours when they warned oil prices will cut into this quarter’s earnings. And the market has been doing not too bad with all this bad news. Let’s see if anything happens during the weekend.

Have a great weekend and spend some time looking at charts. It really doesn’t matter what the news is, it’s all in the charts

Anybody playing the CNBC Millionaire’s Challenge?

Hope you weren’t holding BSC…unless you were short. I was short on Friday, but didn’t have the balls to hold over the weekend. Yes, millionaire status lost again.

Misery loves company, so you may want to listen to some of the stories or watch some of the videos on I Got Cramered. Ouch, ouch, ouch! This is a website dedicated to all the poor advice and subsequent investor damage caused by Jim Cramer on CNBC.

But seriously folks, the financial companies and banks will be taking a hit today. Will the rest of the market follow suit? The January lows should come into play. The VIX will definitely be flying high today as fear and uncertainty floods the market place.

And Happy St. Patrick’s Day

Futures looked like we would have a powerful open to the markets. We had a whimpering up open that lasted 15 minutes. Then everyone figured out that if the Feds were bailing out BSC, it had to be a lot worse than we thought. The markets, as well as BSC, dove, and fast. The next half hour saw a 300+ point drop in the Dow before a 200 point recovery and then a continuation back down to revisit the day’s lows. All the markets closed well below their 8 exponential moving average.

Now, if you were paying attention BSC was a great play up and down. I first got in at 27.07 and road it up until 34.36. I sold half and then sold the other half at $35. I then got in at $34 on the way down and got out about an hour later at $32…I didn’t have the kahoonas to play until the end of the day for another 2 dollars. BSC closed at $30. Rumor has it BSC will be gone by Monday. Now we’ll see how LEH does.

Next week may be real crazy….Fed meeting on Tuesday, option expiration on Thursday and a day off on Friday. This might be rough

Futures moving down throughout the morning based on CSCO forecasts last night and WMT same store sales report this morning. The hinge pin will be the job claims report (or is that nail in the coffin). Is this “the big one” today? Capitulation? Is all this eradicate behavior, doom and gloom news, and everyone talking bear, signaling a bottom? Are we not supposed to be buying when there’s “blood-in-the-streets? I think I’ll keep my “powder dry” unless I see the perfect chart.

On the good side…the Nikkei closed up last night, ANF BJ and ARO had better than expected January comparative sales, ECB expected to lower rates a quarter point.

I’m strapped in and ready to go….back to sleep

P.S. Jobless claims down…put that in the good column.

The TRIN, measuring up/down volume on the NYSE, says a reading over 1.0 is bearish. And a close above 2.0 results in a bounce the next day 9 out of 10 times. If no bounce, the market is in real trouble.

Well today we closed at about 4.0. So, do we crash in the morning….as in capitulation…..and then bounce to the close? Will the Fed step in?

JPM and WFC report tomorrow. We’ll also find out about the CPI and the Fed Beige Book. If the Fed wants to make a difference, tomorrow is the day.