Monthly Archive for December, 2009
Gee, I’m already partying…tomorrow should be real fun….hic! SEED and GS made my week, or maybe my month! Looks to be a very profitable year end.
Markets closed at breakeven again, but individual stocks had some nice moves. Oh well, one more day to go. I don’t know if volume can get any smaller, but be ready to watch paint to dry.
For your reading enjoyment:
The Decade that Was for some serious reading.
And then:
The Decade in Sex Was it good for you?
We knew it couldn’t last forever, I mean 6 days up in a row is quite a lot. I wanted it to keep going but knew a time would come. Okay, it’s not down big…actually it is more of a breakeven doji day. I’m not sure you can even analyze a market with so little volume….so I won’t. But….
The VIX closed above 20 for the first time in a week, so maybe some uncertainty is entering the market. I mean, who is going to hold stocks over the 3 day weekend, so some selling pressure is likely….but I don’t think 
there will be any great pressure in either direction. I’m looking for tomorrow and Thursday to be looking a lot like Monday and Tuesday.
Also time to start looking for party favors…..
Was anybody trading today? Volume was so low! I spent the day…and probably the week, just closing positions that I have been nursing….GS calls popped in the morning and PSID popped in the afternoon, allowing me to get out with a few bucks. I close out many positions here because I use mark-to-market accounting….even if I didn’t close out the positions I would still have to take the loss. So why not?
On the other hand, I did pick up some puts in QQQQ and calls in QID….just a few contracts each, looking for a correction soon.
ES usually trades a couple million contracts a day….today only 472K! Man, talk about low volume. 
Consumer Sentiment comes out tomorrow, Chicago PMI on Wednesday and Inital Claims will finish out this year on Thursday. And if the eco-data doesn’t stir things up, there’s always all the political shennanigans going on. Have a fun week…..and a Happy New Year 
Did you see Congress raise its own limit on its own credit card? Yes, they raised the U.S. debt ceiling so as not to get a default notice. Sure wish I could do that! Hope everyone had a great holiday weekend. Here’s some reading for you to get ready for another holiday shortened week:
Why Interest Rates Will Almost Certainly Rise in 2010
Here’s a couple you need to read as a pair:
Banks Bundled Bad Debt, Bet Against It and Won
Goldman Sachs Responds to The New York Times on Synthetic Collateralized Debt Obligations
I’m going to get back into the groove by looking at charts, charts and more charts. Many charts looking real good, like the SPY QQQQ. Many showing a breakout formation….but also on lower volume. Let’s see what Santa left the markets tomorrow. 
For all of you “politically correct” traders, please accept with no obligation, implied or implicit, my best wishes for an environmentally conscious, socially responsible, low stress, non-addictive, gender neutral, celebration of the winter solstice holiday, practiced within the most enjoyable traditions of the religious persuasion of your choice, or secular practices of your choice, with respect for the religious/secular persuasions and/or traditions of 
others, or their choice not to practice religious or secular traditions at all. I also wish you a fiscally successful, personally fulfilling, and medically uncomplicated recognition of the onset of the generally accepted calendar year 2010……..
For everyone else, I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a healthy and prosperous New Year!
Well, the last full trading day of the week ended in the green. The Dow and S&P up a little and the Nasdaq and Russell up a bit more than that. Tech stocks really dragged all the markets up today….AMZN GOOG and AAPL led the way. To my disappointment, GS sucked….but that happens.
Tomorrow will be interesting. Initial and Continuing Claims, as well as Durable Goods Orders will set the mood before the markets open. According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac – Christmas Eve – Dow down 4 of last 7. No matter what happens it will be on low volume….as expected for the holidays.
I won’t be around much on Christmas Eve, but, my whole family is Wishing You Happy Holidays and A Profitable 2010! Merry Christmas everyone 
Santa continues to buy on dwindiling volume…and it will continue to dwindle for the next week. The day started 
timidly as GDP numbers were below expectations. But, housing numbers kick started an upward bias, extending the bullish bias from overseas markets. VIX is the lowest its been in 16 months.
I spent a lot of time shopping today, for gifts that is, so here – Read, learn and enjoy………
Markets to Retest March Lows—So Buy Gold
Mondays continue to do their thing….acting strong. I wish the markets had closed closer to their highs, but you take what you can. GS was a winner for me as was TNA….cashing in within the first hour of trading.
Volume was way down from Friday’s and below the 10 and 30 day averages. That will probably continue to go down. 
Tomorrow brings us another reading on GDP and also Existing Home Sales. While you’re waiting here’s something to read:
Drop in inflation should bring Drop in crime
Lots of choppy action…lots of gaps…lots of sudden moves. Dips get bought and rallies get sold, and in the end, the market is little changed. Once again we managed to get nowhere fast. If you’re a day trader sitting at your computer all day, the trading may have seemed dramatic. If you’re a buy -n- hold type investor, well, recent moves have had the tightest range of almost any time slice you would care to look at.
Volume was way up on Friday, but that was from quadruple options expiration and S&P re-indexing/re-balancing on the last opex day of the year….and may have been the last trade for many traders now on their Christmas vacation. So watch volume really fall off this week and next. 
Markets will close early on Thursday and will be closed for Christmas on Friday.
As I write the futures are in a tight range again. But, later tonight the Bank of Japan will be releasing some information and our own U.S. Senate will be voting on their version of ObamaCare….both may move futures.
Some interesting reading for you:
That’s a lot of stock! talks about there being enough C stock outstanding that every person in the world can own 2.5 shares. 
John Zogby On U.S. Business And The Economy
C’mon Santa Claus…it’s time to rally!
Initial Claims were up, FDX earnings lousy and Greece slumping into the abyss….today was a lump of coal in my stocking! C traded an amazing 3.766 billion shares today, which breaks the prior record of 2.674 billion shares this past summer, also by C. Quite a day, but still a bummer.
I got bitch-slapped by my GS calls…sure I had stops, but it opened gapping way down and jumping over my stops. So I sat and looking at charts most of the day, mumbling something or other all day. Near the end of the day I bought some additional GS calls because GS looks like it may have found some support.
After hours earnings reports may help out on Friday. RIMM ORCL and NKE came out with good reports, especially RIMM. Futures acting a bit stronger, so maybe GS will catch a bid also. 
Options expiration Friday, so time for gyrations and everybody looking to go flat before the holiday weeks. Yep, the next 2 weeks should show some lighter volume, possibly the lightest of the year.
Remember to spend some time away from your charts with family and friends….it is the season y’know. Happy Holidays.
Except for the Dow, the indexes ended in the green…not by much, but the Dow wasn’t down by much either. That was one of the most tamest reactions to an FOMC statement I’ve seen. We usually get at least some sort of pop ‘n drop or gap ‘n crap or something when the statement comes out. Not today….timid.
I didn’t have much going on with SEED, still in it…. But those GS calls were golden. Cashed half of them out near the highs and still holding for some more upside action….hopefully. My stop loss is already in the green, so even if things don’t go well the position will still be a winner.
We’ve got Initial and Continuing Claims tomorrow along with Leading Indicators. Also we’ll be getting some earnings reports from FDX NKE and RIMM. And don’t forget, options expiration on Friday. Come next week we’ll be seeing the volume drop off considerably. Let the merriment begin….happy holidays.
For your reading enjoyment: Hate Wall Street. Love Wall Street.
