Boy, that was some Gosh Darn Pop…or sometimes called GDP! It beat the expected number and really beat the number GS leaked yesterday to help the market dive. Even another half million unemployed people couldn’t drag it down today. But we do need to see some follow thru on Friday to make it meaningful. I would think we at least make anothere new high for the year before we crash.
The TNA held overnight last night worked as planned. My only regret was I cashed out too early, but a profit is a profit. All the indexes bounced of their 50ma, except for the Dow, which hasn’t made it down there yet. But they all made up yeasterday’s losses plus more.
We’ve got Personal Income/Spending reports on Friday, the Chicago PMI and Michigan Sentiment…all out by 10AM. You can check in to see how the Asian markets are shaping up this evening: Asian Stocks Rise on Japan Jobless Data, U.S. GDP; Rio Advances. And ES futures have had a narrow range of less than 3 points. So let’s hope the markets don’t get scary tomorrow. 
Happy Halloween!
Boy oh boy, lots of people wanted out of the market today….scattering for the exits! Funny I made more on my longs than I did my shorts. While I was trading today, I noticed that, at times, I had both TZA and TNA positions working. So I was both long and short the market. TZA was a position I held most of the day and TNA I was in and out four, maybe 5 times….all moneymakers, except for the small TNA position I am holding overnight, but I think it should get better tomorrow.
We’re down about 6% from the top just 6 days ago, which is the largest correction since this bull started back in March. It’s also one of only 3 times since then when we have had 4 down days in a row. We haven’t had 5, so tomorrow may be a “special” day. I’m thinking it is time for a bounce…maybe not a big one, but a bounce…thus my holding some TNA.
Some other ominous moves were GS breaking thru its 50ma, as did the S&P, Nasdaq, QQQQ. The Dow is still hanging tough, or at least tougher than the rest. This all started when GS lowered it’s GDP estimate, so Thursday morning will be exciting. And don’t forget Initial Claims!
So let’s get ready to rumble into the end of October. If we don’t move up in the next 2 days, we’ll finally have a down month, the first since February. Keep your finger on the mouse and happy trading. 
Wednesday is the 80th anniversary of the 1929 Stock Market crash. It looks like markets are having sympathy pains already.
UUP and SRS calls worked today so I cashed them in, but ES futures were my cash cow for sure. Surprisingly, the best was on the long side. The markets went back and forth so much today my neck started to hurt.
In between trades I was transfering and installing programs and data onto a new Windows 7 computer….nice, I like it! That replaces the last of my XP computers. Now my office is just made up of Vista and 7….they work nicely together. So while my tech problems are over in my office, I still have issues with my web hosting service…but I think we may be close to a solution.
Tomorrow I’ll still look at re-entering both SRS and UUP, but am not taking any long-term positions…and long-term to me is more than a day. 
Now for some interesting reading. First read An Interview With Bruce Bartlett.
Then read this: Bartlett’s Impudent “Stimulus” Idea. Thought provoking for sure.
See ya tomorrow.
All the plays I was thinking about last night were good: UUP TBT UYG, and I was able to work them in both directions. The markets were really wild as they started to the upside and then came crashing down. It was a trader’s market, but also very tiring.
I think the tech issues have been resolved this evening, Be back tomorrow. G’nite. 
Published on
October 26, 2009,
7:46 am in
Intraday, News, Opinions and Trading.
Tags: dollar, interest rates, News, TBT, UUP, UYG, XLF.
FDIC Friday brought the closing of 7 more banks, bringing the list to 106, the most since 1992 and there is still 2 more months to go through.
Bank failures hit 106 for year; many more are weak
All this goes on while the banks and the government get and make more money.
2009 US economy: largest transfer of wealth to financial/political elite in global history.
I think I’ll be looking at bank and dollar and interest rate ETFs for some action today: TBT UUP UYG XLF. Futures were up overnight but began to weaken as the spotlight turned to European, and now, U.S. markets.
Apologies all around for not getting any updates this weekend. I’m not only getting pressure at my throat but also up my ….well, I’ll explain it when my blood pressure comes down. I hope my temp fixes at least allow you to get the blog. My PC at the office is getting a Windows 7 upgrade, so I’m just getting it at both ends. 
Again, apologies and I hope to be updating fast 
Happy Trading.
As the dollar went up this morning the markets went down….which was good news for the UUP and SRS calls. I took profits early. Then the market did a turnaround and it ground higher most of the morning and took off in the afternoon. As it moved up late in the session, I picked up UUP and SRS calls again, What the hell, why not?
Even if we continue the up move, we can’t, or is that won’t, go too much farther. Our economy is still losing jobs, as noted in today’s Initial Claims report. I think Friday’s Existing Home Sales report may be a stinker also. If not, then maybe we blow off the top before reversing.
One of the things most notable of late is that the up days have been on lower volume than the down days. That just doesn’t sit right. And even more jobs down the tubes when Chrysler Financial to cease business within 2 years. And even if companies do not close their doors, Top employees leave financial firms ahead of pay cuts.
Oh well, keep watching those charts.
It was a fairly calm day until all hell broke loose late in the session. Why it happened I can’t tell…some profit taking, some bad earnings, some rumors. Whatever it was, it was a strong down move on increasing volume…like a key reversal day.
I wasn’t sure how to play this, so I got into a mish-mash of options, calls in UUP CAL and SRS. The SRS calls are in the near month, but the others are way out there in March of next year, giving these positions room to develop. SRS is my market short, CAL a pseudo-oil play and UUP the U.S. Dollar play. At the close they were all in the green.
Futures this evening are still to the downside, even though China has a good GDP report. Of course it could be so good that many may find it unbelievable….and that would be a downer. But, I took a long ES position at 1075. I’ll let it run til the morning, unless I can’t sleep.
Thursday is the biggest earnings report day with more companies reporting than on any other single day….MSFT and AMZN will be the big ones after the close. Before the bell we have Initial Claims and then after the open we have Leading Indicators and Housing Price Index. So we’ll see if the markets buck up and give the bulls room to run or make the bears a bit more comfortable.
Be careful out there and happy trading.
The bulls were corralled today, letting bears play, but they came out to play several times. I spent my day looting the market, sometimes known as scalping, grabbing counter-trend moves during a trend day down. Using TNA BGU SSO I was able to spend a few minutes at a time just grabbing some pocket change. What the hell, a profit is a profit! ESZ9 was also fun but I traded the e-mini in the direction of the trend….down that is.
Financials should move around on Wednesday as WFC MS USB report before the open. BA should have some impact also. But the play to watch is the U.S.Dollar, at least for now. If it continues up, the market should confirm a down move.
For your reading pleasure, a short one and a long one:
Despite Bullish Momentum, Could Bears Be Regrouping?
Tenacious G – Inside Goldman Sachs, America’s most successful, cynical, envied, despised, and (in its view, anyway) misunderstood engine of capitalism.
…makes for a bullish recipe. The action in the markets today came after the close when earnings reports made the bulls run the markets up. Gee, at this rate maybe we’ll see new all-time highs by the end of the year.
Back to reality, would be more of a topping process with a correction to come soon…..and maybe a big one. But I guess we won’t know until it happens. So today I scalped a few points with TZA and BGU, going both ways again.
Futures are up this evening, but it looks a bit suspicious that S&P futures could not make a new high after those AAPL and TXN reports. And the Russell is still lagging behind the other indexes. So is the RUT leading down or lagging up? Tomorrow should tell. Perhaps a little of that AAPL sauce will perk it up. 
GE IBM and BAC brought everything down on Friday, helped by a worse than expected U of M Sentiment Index. Gee, is there any possibility things are not as good as the stock market believes? The third quarter earnings are turning out to be like the 2nd quarter: companies have reduced costs (more layoffs) to be able to still make bottom-line numbers. But top-line, or revenues, continue to be light….. Can’t continue that way for much longer.
Looking at charts, there are arguments for the bulls and the bears, so it may be best to play the day as it develops. And this evening’s futures show it developing to the downside….but it’s still early. 
VIX hit a 20 handle on Friday, a 52-week low, getting back to “pre-crisis” levels.
I’m thinking AAPL should break the bank on Monday after the close….after all, they’ve had good success with the iPhone and iTunes. The big question is, will it be as good as everybody thinks or as good as their stock price suggests?
There was lots of interesting reading this weekend and wanted to point you to some that everyone should read:
Dow 10,000: Nothing to Celebrate
10,000: Then and Now
What Happens If the Dollar Crashes
Finding a Job Right Now is Extremely Difficult
Yes, AAPL on Monday will get things rolling, but next week is jam-packed with many many reports with the likes of TXN KO PFE UTX GILD YHOO SNDK FCX LLY AMGN EBAY MSFT and lots of banks and financial institutions. Thursday will be a info-overload day, with more earnings reports than you can read along with economic data Unemployment Initial Claims and Leading Indicators. Also this week Fed Beige Book and Existing Home Sales Whooo-boy, I’m getting tired already.
Well I had a bearish position going into the morning open, and took profits early. That turned out to be perfect timing, because someone opened the gate and let all the bulls out. GS beat estimates but not by much so down they went. HOG had a horrible report and dove quickly but reversed just as fast and ended up big. Then after the close GOOG blew it out of the water and popped big time, while IBM did okay but dove down. We’ll see in the morning how that plays out. And remember we have some big time reports before the opening bell: GE BAC HAL MAT. Keep your eye on the charts!
For this evening’s reading pleasure:
Racing the Clock to Avoid Foreclosures
U.S. Foreclosure Filings Jump 23% to Record in Third Quarter
