For the last several weeks I’ve been looking for a downside move to the market….and yes it has hurt a couple times. But now, looking at charts all weekend, things are looking bullish. So does this mean the market might be going down 
I’m thinking momentum from that last half hour Friday may take this up some more….maybe to this year’s high of about 944. But I don’t think that we can go too much more. We already seem to be in a fantasy land.
Futures and Asian markets are cooperating so far this evening, but I went to 100% cash by the close on Friday, and yes missing some of that spectacular run-up. Sometimes it gets tough playing this game.
After a day of lackadaisical trading the markets ended with a wow 
And the synopsis over at Zero Hedge says it all:
….the complete tape painting volume spike at the very end of the day speaks for itself. And as computers now simply issue forced stock recall orders to each other, painting the tape wet with manipulative intent and volume spikes into the last 20 minutes of trading every day, their human creators are left on the sidelines, trying to outshout each other as to the reason for why the market keeps rising while the economy keeps tumbling. Is there ever going to be any transparency in this market again?
Check out the entire blog entry at Zero Hedge…..and have a great weekend.
What the $%@&* is going on? Debt holders for GM agree to something or other and now GM’s bankruptcy will be easier and faster. What king of bullshit is that? This is good news? GM needs another $50B dollars. They already got $20B. That makes for a handout of $70B to a company that is only worth $800M. What the $%@&*
The market is just crazy. I finally made some good money on my IWM puts and I closed the day picking up some GS puts (GSRI), only because it looks way overbought….and way overpriced.
Can’t get any signals from futures this evening. ES has a humongous 3 point range so far, while YM’s range is 31 points. Oh well, guess I’ll go to bed and sleep on it. 
Why won’t these charts listen to the damn indicators they are showing? So I started unloading my underwater shorts bit by bit as the market wavered in the morning. It was going to continue that strong up move from yesterday, wasn’t it? No!
I’ve just about unloaded it all by noon, except for my IWM puts and the market reverses….big time. If I would of held on to my BGZ and SRS I would have been a very happy camper by the end of the day. Sure I got back in and scalped a few dollars to relieve the pain, but still….I could have been a rich man (tongue in cheek). Lesson learned…you have to trust your signals, chart patterns and instincts.
I have a few IWM puts (IWMRX) that I’m still nursing at break even. This market is so news and event driven, it’s hard to be a trader. So I’ll try again tomorrow. Be careful out there. 
I don’t get this at all! Totally insane! Home prices fell the most in 21 years! And then the Consumer Confidence stated:
…current conditions have moderately improved, and growth in the second quarter is likely to be less negative than in the first.
Do you see that? Less Negative…this is good news? Oh, and read on:
Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased to 8.7 percent from 7.9 percent. However, those claiming conditions are “bad” increased to 45.3 percent from 44.9 percent.
A whole 8.7% believe that business conditions are good! That is not 87%, but a number less than 9. And this is good? Business and markets and banks and stocks are all better? I mean “less negative?” What the $%@&*
I didn’t trade much today. In the pre-market I was pretty happy with my positions in BGZ and IWM puts. And when the Case/Schiller home prices came out, I even picked up a few shares of SRS, the UltraShort Real Estate ETF. I went about my business today, came back to my office and WHAM! What the $%@&*
My positions were well under water….how depressing. Markets took off on a survey of 5000 people (Consumer Confidence) telling us we are 54% as confident as we were in 1985.That sure is good news, huh?
Oh well. Now to develop a strategy to get out of this with my shirt on. But the markets are so spastic, it’s almost a minute by minute thing. Will need to look out for Existing Home Sales tomorrow, New Home Sales on Thursday and GDP on Friday.
And one last thing….Did you see that Facebook is valued at $10 Billion? The new valuation of Facebook makes it worth more than 310 of the S&P 500 companies, according to data from Bloomberg. Of course that valuation is only two-thirds of last year’s valuation when MSFT bought in. But who cares? Let’s party like it’s 1999
Except for my premature stop loss at mid-week of my short positions, the week went according to plan. Yesterday (Thu) afternoon, a down day, I began accumulating long market positions with TNA BGU and SSO. Today the market took off in the morning, allowing me to take a very nice profit….yowzaaa
Then, today, I began accumulating short market positions using BGZ and IWM puts. I thought I was setting myself up for Tuesday, but the market sold off Friday afternoon, that I just had to take some profits. I sold half my positions with unexpected profits and am still ready to take more on a Tuesday down move. I just love it when a plan comes together.
Please remember to shake the hand and thank a living veteran, and please remember our fallen veterans. We couldn’t be doing what we do without them. God Bless America
Didn’t trade at all this morning…just sat and watched the charts go down. Yes I could have shorted or latched on to some of the bear ETFs, but I was still reeling from yesterday’s stop out of my bear positions. But by mid-afternoon, as the SPX approached 880, I started to nibble on TNA, BGU and SSO….all bullish positions. I thought we would go test the 870-875 area, but we stopped at about 879 before reversing and taking off to the upside. All positions in the green and continued up after hours!
Tomorrow will bring holiday volume and I’m thinking lackluster trading. U.S. futures are up already this evening, but Asian markets are opening down. Have a wonderful weekend and please remember our fallen soldiers.
…you whipsaw market. I never did recover today from getting my shorts whacked…BGZ and TZA. But I did scalp using TNA and QLD …fast scalps…to get some of my money back. TNA is the inverse of TZA, both 3x ETFs of small caps…TNA the bull and TZA the bear. BGU is the inverse of BGZ…large caps.
Although my account is a bit smaller this evening, I still put today in the win column. Why? Because I obeyed my trading plan…I kept my stops in place…I let the loss go and didn’t dwell on it. Now I have reviewed it again this evening and it was greed that let me lose. About an hour before I was stopped out, in the pre-market, both my positions were green. I could have taken a couple hundred dollars, but greed said go for more and I end up losing several hundreds. 
So then I started scalping TNA since the market was going up. And since I had just been burned, I did not take as large a position as I had lost. But for about 1 to 5 minutes of risk, I scalped $50 to $100 easily…and did it over and over. So I was happy…still in the red, but the process worked. Now the ironic part, if I had held my original position all day long, by the end I would have been deep into profits. 
So now what? Well, I’m 100% in cash and looking for the markets to go down….but only for a little while. The U.S. has a knack of getting bullish, on lower volume, going into a patriotic holiday weekend. So we’ll see.
Futures are trending down this evening, along with Asian markets. But we know this market turns on a dime…as in today. Be careful out there.
Got stopped on all my short positions right after the open….BGZ and TZA whacked. VIX now with a 26 handle. Let’s party like it’s 1999.
One of my favorite current events blogs is Clusterfuck Nation by Jim Kunstler. His latest entry is Bad Collateral.
The president is playing with fire on all this. The old economy is not going to recover, and so far he has not used his rhetorical talents to articulate what the next economy is likely to be about. It is reasonable to wonder whether he even really has a clear sense of it — and, based on the fatuous utterances of his economic mandarins like Larry Summers and Austan Goolsby, this team is really behind the curve.
All the indexes closed about even, no big ups, no big downs…..and where did all the traders go? Volume has been coming down for more than a week, along with the VIX, as it did go sub-30, closing at 28.8. So less volume and less volatility….daytrader’s hell. 
My activity was tame as well. All I did was add to my BGZ position and started a small TZA position on the market rallies. And with that last half-hour stumble, both positions went green.
After hours, HPQ had a mediocre report, the UK has a scandal in its House of Commons, BAC reported they have diluted their shares to the tune of 1.25 billion shares, and futures reacted downward. I’m still looking at overbought markets and see a downward move….sometime this week….but we’ll take the market as it comes.
How else can you explain the action in the markets today? Trend day up. I think non-believers were shorting in the first half of the day….and then covering in the afternoon….yes, I think it was a short-covering rally, but, as I had to change tactics today, it’s hour by hour in this market.
Today after markets gapped up, I went long QLD and found a few stocks that looked enticing: JRJC ARM ACAS. I bought all my longs because they were approaching or at the 8ema on their daily charts. They all did well. But as the end of the day approached and they took off, I claimed my profits and closed them out. And, since the market was looking like a 1999 blowoff, I nibbled a short position buying BGZ, the large cap 3x bear fund. Even if we get a continuing gap up on Tuesday, this was a quick up move and I’m looking for a quick move down just to compensate for the move up.
Now for the case of a continuing bull….VIX was down today, almost going sub-30. And, maybe last week was enough of a pullback to get all those money managers back in a buying mood. And, maybe tomorrow’s Building Permit report and Housing Starts report will be better than expected. So….I may be stopped out of BGZ real quick and getting into BGU. 
