Monthly Archive for March, 2009

Never short a dull market…

Published on March 31, 2009, 9:30 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , .

…In a low volume scenario, the market can skin you alive if you’re short. And boy could you hear the screams around lunch time 8O And after the cash close at 4PM, the S&P futures started diving to the tune if 15 points and then continued to fall when the futures re-opened for another 15 points. It’s been an ugly couple of hours in the futures this evening.

So, does this show us what to expect tomorrow? If I knew that I’d be rich :oops: Early overseas markets are up, but that may be more of a reaction to what happened during the cash market hours here in the US.

Banks did do very well today: UYG FAS FITB HBAN C BAC WFC JPM and all the rest. And of course, MSFT got an analyst upgrade and popped a good 5% today. But, like the futures, the banks were showing weakness in the after hours session.

So I’ll leave you with this: the Trader’s Almanac says “First day in April, Dow up 11 of last 14. Up 300 points in 2000 and 400 last year (2008).” Sounds good, yes? But it also said “Last trading day in March, Dow down 10 of last 14.” And we know that didn’t carry today. We’ll see. Happy Trading :!:

Banks down, Banks up

Published on March 30, 2009, 9:45 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , , .

Well it was a rough start that lasted all day. I couldn’t get a good handle on the S&P futures (ES) so I didn’t play along at all. The only trade I made was adding to my UYG position late in the day.

The big banks took it on the chin, and thus, FAZ really took off. But not all the banks were hurting. FITB SBNY ABCW are a few of the regional banks that did alright on a down day. A couple other tickers were doing well for an ugly day: SHFL EEE ARIA ANV QCOR. Now to see if they pan out tomorrow.

Overall it was another low volume down day, but support levels did hold, like $30.00 for the QQQQs and the 34ema for both the DJ30 and SP500. I’d say the low volume pullback is not bad…at least not yet. Futures are in the green this evening and so are overseas markets, at little bit anyway. So let’s watch those banks again and see if they start moving up

Rough start?

Published on March 29, 2009, 8:53 pm in Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , .

Friday was a mediocre consolidation day, with the lowest volume day in the month of March…but then, the entire week was low volume. The banks were a bit lethargic and the rest of the markets followed suit.

But, trading was profitable :-) I had several great trades in ES, ending the week in positive territory for my P/L….which barely made up some lousy trades in the banking sector. I had a run in with FAZ during the week, which left a bad taste, but made it up with UYG. Still holding some UYG, but stops are in at breakeven…so it will end up a good trade no matter what it decides to do on Monday.

Some financial stocks came up on my scans this evening which I’ve added to my watch list for tomorrow: NFP TEN AIB WBS … along with some techs: RNWK ATML TNL.

Futures are moving to the downside this evening, along with the overseas markets. The government is showing its hand in business management, firing GM CEO Wagoner. I think we start off on shakey ground Monday morning :-(

What a shame…

Published on March 27, 2009, 7:05 am in News and Opinions. 0 Comments Tags: .

Dylan was the only reason to watch CNBC. I guess it’s back to “The Price Is Right!” ‘FAST’ FLARE-UP RATTLES CNBC

Rally continues

Published on March 26, 2009, 10:40 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

Again, after a fairly mediocre trading day, the bulls come alive near the end, driving the indexes up, up and away. Something says we need to pullback and consolidate a bit. But it is the end of the month and end of the quarter…and soon the start of another earnings season. I’m thinking a non-dramatic grind up, for another 30-50 points in the S&P500 that may take a couple of weeks.

I had over 200 stocks that crossed up through their 200sma today. Haven’t seen anything like that in a very long time…a year maybe! And several more that are just shy of their 200ma. Does anyone think we may have seen the bottom of this whole mess? Maybe March 9th was THE bottom. Of course we won’t know for several months…you can only call the bottom after the fact. The top wasn’t called for several months after October 2007, almost a year actually. They couldn’t call the bear until the markets fell 20% off their highs. Well, the bull is now 20% above its lows. With a little bit of time and a test of those levels, we may be able to call this a bull rally :lol:

I learned from several of my mistakes and had a good day trading. Got my money back from the S&P futures and am still holding some financials like UYG and FAS…but I took most of the profits and have just small positions left, thinking that money managers will want to keep their value up to at least end the quarter looking smarter than they did at the end of last quarter :evil:

Happy Trading!

Thank God for those last 60 minutes!

Published on March 25, 2009, 9:19 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , .

I was a pretty crappy trader today…I kept getting stopped out in the S&P futures (ES) and my trade in UYG was also in the red. But come about 3:30 PM I was seeing green all over :mrgreen:

Seems like the banks took off faster than all the other sectors, so UYG and FAS screamed up and FAZ tanked. And as I always do, I reviewed my trades of the day this evening, and I found all my mistakes were because I didn’t stick to my rules…..I chased some trades….didn’t set a target for others…..just went and bought or sold at the market when wild fluctuations made me scared I would miss something. I lucked out that a short-covering rally took off near the end, but I still consider it an unsuccessful day. I write down and describe each trade, highlight them on my charts, and learn a lot about what not to do tomorrow. Making money is nice, but luck will not make me a successful trader. I get a great amount of satisfaction if the trade goes off according to plan….all the money does is pay the bills!

Futures are still continuing up this evening, with ES up another 8 points. Asian markets are up also. Now to see if this continues into the U.S. morning. Happy trading…..and if you don’t have a plan, don’t trade :idea:

Profit Taking…

Published on March 24, 2009, 9:28 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , .

I hadn’t traded any of the 3X Bear Financial ETFs, FAZ specifically….but I thought I would try today….and I got my ass kicked royally :oops: I’ve had good luck with the 3X Bull, FAS, and the 2X Bull, UYG. So I thought we would have some profittaking in the banks and thus thought FAZ would be a nice mover to the upside. I got in near $21 this morning and it proceeded to dive. I didn’t panic…I had a stop loss put in, but I didn’t think it would go directly there. This was totally my inexperience in watching how that stock moves and travels during the day. I tried for the easy buck and got beat. That’s the way it is sometimes. On the good side, later in the day, I was able to get in near the low and recoup about half my earlier loss. So the embarrassment was gone, but the sting was still there. FAZ is a super-fast mover and needs to be traded quick. Oh well, I’ll get the rest back tomorrow ;)

Today’s down move in the markets was on lower volume, so I think that’s a positive. Tomorrow we have Durable Goods and New Home Sales reports, along with the usual Crude Inventories. Futures are holding up this evening and foreign markets are mixed, no big up or down moves. I guess there’s more consolidation in store, and I’ve got to work hard not to have 2 down days in a row :mrgreen:

7%

Published on March 23, 2009, 7:02 pm in Daily and Trading. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , .

That’s how much the S&P500 went up today. And although I traded the S&P futures (ESM09) today….I didn’t get that. In matter of fact, by the end of the day, I was barely in the green, up 4.5 points. I had a tough time picking some good, stable setups. At my worst point I was down -10.75 points and struggled to recover. It was tiring :?

I did do fairly well on the equities side…40% on FAS and 35% on HW. So it was a good overall day, but I’m feeling like I just drove a Jeep off-road with no shocks and no seatbelt for 6 hours :!:

I surprised myself in that my weekend cheerleading actually paid off…..lucky, not talented. Now, if we don’t see too much profit taking, maybe a small inside day/doji/harami, even a couple days consolidating, I would be very encouraged. The S&P500 is up 21% from its lows….and by definition, that’s a bull market. The Nasdaq is up 22%….just need the Dow to creep up a percentage or two and we’d be on our way across the board.

And I’m sure that all this market enthusiasm is based on the simple renaming of toxic-assets to legacy-loans….it sounds just so much nicer :roll:

Sunday afternoon pontifications…

Published on March 22, 2009, 1:44 pm in Opinions, Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , , .

I’m looking for an up week. I think there is enough upcoming news that may bring some optimism to the most downtrodden of bulls. And if the Arrogant Idiots and Goofballs (AIG) ever get out of the headlines, we may really takeoff :lol:

With announcements about toxic assets, TALF, FDIC and public-private partnerships, if this isn’t the start of a new bull, we should at least get a dramatic bear rally. We’ve also got some economic reports this week that may be a catalyst…Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, 4th Quarter GDP, Personal Income and Spending, as well as the weekly Jobless Claims.

Yes, I’m cheer leading for the bulls, at least in the mid-term….but I still watch the daily trend, either up or down, and base my daily trades on that. For the mid- and long-term in my IRAs and retirement accounts, I’ve been accumulating bit by bit, dollar-cost averaging new purchases, mostly in ETFs like the financials (UYG), real estate (URE), crude (DXO) and some indexes (SSO and IWM).

And speaking of indexes, they’ve had a great 7 days:

  • The Russell 2000 up 21.7%
  • The NASDAQ up 17.5%
  • The S&P500 up 17.4%
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average up 14.4%

So last week the S&P500 got knocked down from its January lows and the Dow from its November lows. No big deal. I think the next time we approach they will breakthrough….maybe after the S&P tests its November lows and bounces.

OK, time to check out some basketball and a few Bud Lights 8)

Another Rally Coming?

Published on March 21, 2009, 5:43 pm in News. 0 Comments Tags: , .

Depending on how it is explained and presented….and depending on how traders interpret it…This can really set off another rally: U.S. Sets Plan for Toxic Assets from WSJ Online, and I’m sure will be front page on Monday’s edition!

But, there is some ominous wording in the article also:

More broadly, investors have become leery about signing on to government programs for fear Congress will abruptly change the rules…..Bankers are already expressing anger at Congress’s moves……Congress’s proposals to clamp down on bonuses have the potential to damage the ability of the government to engineer a financial recovery…….If investors or companies in the private sector believe that the rules can change quickly and indiscriminately, they will be unwilling to participate.

Double up days

Published on March 21, 2009, 9:43 am in News and Other Traders. 0 Comments Tags: .

Some interesting commentary on the multiple 9 to 1 up days at MarketWatch: Playing The Odds.

Some bullish technical analysts are making a big deal out of the three 9-to-1 up days that have occurred in the still-young rally that began on March 9.

2 weeks up!

Published on March 20, 2009, 9:17 pm in Trading and Weekly. 0 Comments Tags: , , , .

Well, it was an ugly close to the week, but we have strung together 2 back-to-back up weeks. Haven’t seen that for a while! So we had some profit-taking and some consolidation of the rally…that’s not a bad thing. It was a fairly sedate options expiration. Yes there was news from GS about their continuing exposure to AIG’s problems and some news about the FDIC getting low in reserves, but overall it was a quiet news day.

I’m gonna go through plenty of charts this weekend and also experiment making some new scans in Tradestation. Thought you might like this video on the S&P and the crude oil market from the MarketClub. It’s a video looking at two different markets that are headed in two different directions. Enjoy…and have a wonderfully relaxing weekend :D